PRISM: Prioritizing Your Goals

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  • 1.  Step 2 - Lesson 3: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Risk

    Posted 12-09-2021 14:54
    One of the best ways to tune out the day-to-day volatility of the financial markets is to be clear about your cash flow needs. The timing of when you need to take withdrawals and how proportionately large those withdrawals are relative to your wealth is a key determinant in your ability to withstand short-term markets volatility. 

    Reflect 

    We want our members to think about their short and long-term risk, especially in regards to withdrawals. Acknowledging this will help you fully understand how it will affect you down the road. Assessing both short and long-term risk is crucial to avoiding ill-time withdrawals as well as overall allocation.

    Engage 

    In the comments, we encourage our members to share their thoughts on sequence risk in relation to retirement withdrawals: 

    1. If you're currently in retirement, what has been your experience taking withdrawals and how has it affected your other investment goals? Has it been positive or negative? 
    2. If you're not yet in retirement, what do you think will be your withdrawal strategy? Do you have additional income you can rely on if you need to fund your investment goals, or will your portfolio be the only one? 

      Remember to watch the Lesson 3 video, fill out the attached worksheet, and participate in the below activity. 

      Example: 

      1. I have not thought about my withdrawal strategy and am learning how serious sequence risk truly is. I will have to rely on my portfolio and savings to fund my goals, especially to fund retirement as well as my parents' long-term care.


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      Jenna Brashear
      AAII Community Manager
      Chicago, IL
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    1. 2.  RE: Step 2 - Lesson 3: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Risk

      Posted 02-13-2023 15:09

      I have had to make one minimum withdrawal (less than 1%) since my retirement due to the fact that my wife is still working and I have a pension.  She will retire in 2024 at which point our retirement really begins. 

      Our withdrawal strategy will be a 4%-5% withdrawal rate for the first year since we will payoff the remainder of our mortgage that year.

      The next 6 years will be a withdrawal rate of 2% - 3% until assuming I wait to age 70 to take social security. 

      At that point we may not have to take any withdrawals except minimum distributions which will be reinvested.  I hope to have that plan in place sooner rather than later.

      We do want to move into an independent living facility if and when we get that far.   Our home will provide most of the entry cost or monthly cost depending on whether we rent it our or just sell it. 

      We have a nice little bundle of Long Term Care insurance that would help with that cost if necessary. 

      All of this of course depends on the real rate of return of our portfolio.  I am using a 5% portfolio rate of return over the lifetime of the plan and a varying interest rate of 5% for two years then 2.75% for the rest of the plan.  I'll be revisiting these assumptions and plan along the way.

      I use a life expectancy of 95 years old for the length of our goal or plan.



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      RICHARD
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    2. 3.  RE: Step 2 - Lesson 3: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Risk

      Posted 02-14-2023 10:35

      Pretty good plan, You have been conservative. Good plan and you should do well except your Health risk which is random. What about next generation education and help when needed. Save 10 and Give 10 helps. HHH II



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      H HELM
      H.Helm
      Pleasant Hill, CA
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    3. 4.  RE: Step 2 - Lesson 3: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Risk

      Posted 02-14-2023 11:43
      • If you're currently in retirement, what has been your experience taking withdrawals and how has it affected your other investment goals? Has it been positive or negative? 

      I effectively became retired with the Covid lock-down and used pension and cash savings for expenses, including a major construction project. I have continued with this pattern, along with defering potential "living the dream" adventures. My minimal withdrawals from investments have mostly been to cover taxes on them. At some point, I know I will actually start withdrawing retirement wealth at some point and expect to implement something. The guidance I've found, like PRISM, describes it as X% for the year, which I think is taking  the amount annually, or monthly. I suppose this is to reinforce the discipline of sticking to the plan but seems disconnected from actual expenses. It seems like this would have an overall effect of converting investments to cash (not used for expenses) prematurely.

      For those in withdraw mode, do you take fixed amounts per time? What do you do with the buffer cash not needed for short-term expenses?

      thx, h



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      Hugh POLING
      amateur radio station KC7HP
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    4. 5.  RE: Step 2 - Lesson 3: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Risk

      Posted 02-15-2023 10:55

      A great way to manage "emergency" or non-mandatory withdrawals is to not need them except for REAL emergencies. We did this by paying off ALL our debt ... then we retired debt free. Having no mortgage debt or car payments and paying off monthly credit card charges monthly eliminates pseudo-"emergency" withdrawals created by planned expenses that start new debts. Each year, my wife and I start with a budget. Every year we collect the records of last year's expenses and project them into the new year adding for inflation. We are very rigorous in tracking all expenses. Then we add up income from all sources and the amounts of mandatory withdrawals to see if we are in balance.

      Our overall goal each year is to have our total net worth INCREASE each year. This means our investments need to earn enough each year to cover the mandatory withdrawals as a minimum.

      So far, we have been successful with this zero-based budgeting approach since 2011 except for 2022 when our total investments decreased 2% (vs $SPX decrease 18%) for the first time. Prior accumulations offset that blip.

      We would not be able to do this if we had debts to service.



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      BARRY JOHNSON
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