AAII Phoenix Chapter

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Write Your Stock Picks in Pencil 

07-04-2025 18:44

It seems like the market environment in which we attempt to make "smart, informed decisions" is moving at a very fast pace.

Wars, bombings, and political theatrics aside, we try to make good, sound, fundamental decisions to make for a relaxing retirement.

The news of the day does impact a stock, TESLA, MMM, ... even a whole sector like energy or healthcare. Energy tax credits just evaporated.  New car interest rates are now deductible up to $10,000/year if it rolled off an assembly line in the US, and I think that is for each year of the car loan.  How will that impact the USED car dealership down the block?  Does he have to cut prices to compete? -- OR is inventory so low -- due to fewer car leases that were made during Covid  (FEWER cars are coming off of leases in 2025, so fewer cars available)

What was "in" a couple of years ago is no longer "in" this year.  All of a sudden, Cannabis as measured by the Global Cannabis Stock Index (NCV) is so "out".  Since its peak in February of 2021, it has dropped 93.6% from its closing high.  Aurora (ACB) shot up by about 38%,... but then dropped about 31% so I would say this area is rather "IFY".

Gold still seems to be the "in" commodity of the day ---- until it isn't.  Oil and gas are now back "in" and EV's are "out".

AI is still hot ---- but I don't know who the winner will be among all those different styles/types.  Utilities may be the biggest winner if they get enough subsidies from folks like Microsoft.  Utilities may also be a big winner for supplying energy for mining bit-coin, ---- but wait, ---- those folks are building their own utility sources??

Feel free to read the attached file from a recent presentation --- for even more questions to ponder.  

And for your 4th of July entertainment:  Heinz Ketchup does not have food dye & most food coloring was removed from their pickles back in 2016 --- so you should be safe --unless you hold on to that illegal fire cracker too long!!  Happy 4th!

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AAII July SIG Presentation.pptx   41.84 MB   1 version
Uploaded - 07-04-2025

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