Growth Investing

Here is an answer from AI

This is a very good question. AI may be real, but "real technology" and "good investment at any price" are not the same thing. Railroads, the internet, fiber optics, and smartphones all changed the world, but investors still had to watch valuation, competition, balance sheets, and timing.

My own view: do not start with "Which AI stock will win?" Start with "Where in the AI value chain is the profit likely to be durable?"

AI investing has several layers:

1. Infrastructure - semiconductors, memory, networking, data centers, power, cooling.
2. Platforms - cloud providers and large software ecosystems.
3. Applications - companies using AI to improve productivity, customer service, security, design, research, health care, finance, etc.
4. Adopters - non-tech companies that may benefit from lower costs or better decisions.
5. Speculative "AI label" companies - firms that add AI language to their story but may not have real earnings power.

For most individual investors, I would be careful about trying to pick only one or two winners. The ETF route is probably more sensible, but even ETFs can be risky because many AI funds are concentrated in the same large stocks. Morningstar recently warned that many AI ETFs have roughly half their assets in their top 10 holdings, and their average valuation has been above the broader market.

Some possible ETF categories:

Broad AI ETFs:
AIQ, BOTZ, ARTY, WTAI, IRBO. These give targeted exposure to AI, robotics, software, and related technology. For example, AIQ and BOTZ both charge 0.68%; BOTZ has global robotics/AI exposure and about $3.7 billion in assets. ARTY charges 0.47% and holds about 50 companies tied to AI technology. WTAI charges 0.45%.

Semiconductor / AI infrastructure ETFs:
SMH, SOXX, SOXQ. These are more direct plays on chips and AI infrastructure. SMH has done very well recently and charges 0.35%, but it is also more concentrated and cyclical.

Broad market ETFs with AI exposure:
VTI, VOO, QQQ, VT, ACWI. These are not "AI ETFs," but they already own many AI leaders. This may be the simplest route for someone who wants AI exposure without betting everything on the theme.

What to avoid:

Avoid funds or stocks that are too narrowly concentrated, especially if the valuation assumes years of perfect execution. Avoid companies that only talk about AI but cannot show revenue, margin improvement, or customer adoption. Be careful with leveraged AI/semiconductor ETFs unless you are trading, not investing. Also avoid assuming that every AI winner will be a stock-market winner; sometimes customers benefit more than suppliers.

My practical answer would be:

For a conservative investor, use a broad index fund as the core, then add only a small satellite position in an AI or semiconductor ETF. For example, 80–95% broad diversified funds, 5–20% AI-related exposure depending on risk tolerance. For a more aggressive investor, split the AI portion between a broad AI ETF and an infrastructure/semiconductor ETF. Rebalance regularly, because this area can become overweight very quickly after a big run.

So yes, AI is important. But the investing rule is still old-fashioned: diversify, watch valuation, avoid hype, and do not confuse a great story with a great price.

My answer is: if it is too late for the long, wait for the opportunity to short.  When the "Contrarian Indicator" is asking for how to long, may be the time to short is near. LOL. 

Vinod

First of all, there's a huge difference between being a "Contrarian Indicator" and being "contrary."

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A "contrarian indicator" is a metric or data point that signals investors to do the opposite of the prevailing market sentiment. The core principle is that when the majority of traders or the public become overly bullish or bearish, the market is often primed for a swift reversal.

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Your post does NOT sound like a you are seeking "Contrarian" advice as much as it sounds like a statement of "belief" about the direction of the market -- "Looks like AI has tremendous potential."

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"AI is right in the middle of AAII " would indicate that AAII is "stuck in the middle" and may be indifferent or indecisive whether its mission is to serve "AAs" or "IIs. " I would data on the AAII membership to make Venn diagrams to sort this conundrum out.

If we take your lead to parse hidden messages in words related to AAII, we can get really confused about subliminal messages – "AmerICAN" "Association" "IndiviDUAL" "InVESTors" "mARKet" "SenTIMEment" "gROWth" "diviDENd" -- and if we try parsing AAII staff member NAMES we have an instant party game for the AAII Christmas Party.

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AI is may be a blessing and a curse. Like any new technology, there will be winners and losers both in market outcomes and implementation.

In times of great opportunity and risk, I turn to Charlie Munger's advice to Warren Buffett, "The man with the most models wins."

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You may want to build a model and a plan based on the knowledge prior models provide.

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The BRK model would be a "good" model we could use to profit from AI.

Turn an AI portfolio into a mini model of the BRK corporate portfolio –

+ a "good" company generating cash flow (insurance)

+ a portfolio of "good" companies

+ an investment portfolio of "good" companies.

Find an engine to provide cash flow. WB chose insurance.

Then add an investment portfolio of "good companies." The asset selection rules he used are outlined in several AAII Guru portfolios.

Then read up on Munger's philosophy to educate yourself on the models Charlie relied on to educate and guide WB and BRK.

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What I have done so far to "model" BRK as a balanced AI investment portfolio is to use ...

(a) an existing business model already generating large cash flows to support AI investment capex needs and has AAA or better credit worthiness; and

(b) has an existing foundation to YOY and QOQ persistence in AI development, deployment, and marketing and selling AI tools, and 

(c) use a invesment portfolio modeled on bogleheads.com, MEF.com, and 20+ related gurus in "Jack's Army."

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Jack Bogle's life story is a great model on how to build a "minimax portfolio" that minimizes transaction costs and maximizes the capability to match market performance. Jeff Bezos has a business adaptation of Bogle's famous corporate maxim for Vanguard's success: "Your margin is my opportunity."

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Thus, I split my portfolio into 3 "buckets" -

Bucket  1  (25%):  Cash reserves in an MMF at 3.5% to invest as needed.

Bucket  2  (25%):  A Total AI Market ETF (see below).

Bucket 3 (50%): Specific AI stocks that I have deemed as "good" companies based on published descriptions and analyst reports on their business models.

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To anchor my AI portfolio, Bucket 1 as a "cash generator,"

I bought shares in SWVXX MMF, the Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund.

It is an actively managed, taxable (ugh) money market mutual fund primarily used by Schwab clients to park idle cash or hold emergency funds while earning a competitive yield.

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To anchor my AI portfolio Bucket 2 as a "market maximizing model", I researched AI ETFs, and I bought an ETF that had ... 

(1) an AI market tracking strategy that had the best model (in my opinion) for

(2) tracking Total AI Market performance,

(3) provided the lowest cost ERs and fees, and

(4) was marketed by a reputable company where I already have an account and have experienced their customer experience.

that (1) minimizes transaction costs, and (2) grounds itself in building a Total AI Stock Market portfolio.

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I am in the process of selecting specific AI-related stocks to anchor my AI portfolio, Bucket 3. I am waiting for the results of pending IPOs and following the ongoing 10-Qs of the 6-10 companies with the largest analyst coverage (an indicator of market standing).

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In all this mishigas makes me meshugana. Oy vey! What's causing exasperation today?

Feedback and critiques welcomed,

Regards

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

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Rob Adams
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Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Mark has the right idea. You can also sift through the holdings of those ETFs and pick and choose among them. However, the recent trajectory of the market is scaring me off for now (and that's very rare). Remember to be fearful when others are greedy! 😁

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Dr Bob

Me, too!

When the noise volume grows this loud, it's time to tune out the message, sit on your pile. 

There are 3 to 5 AI companies launching HUGE IPOs.

Several will go to market capitalizations over $1 trillion  = 1 with 12 zeros = $1,000,000,000,000 --  in the first 5 days.

The "market-makers" -- people who are insiders - will have hyped the price up those first 5 days ... then ... 

Then they will take profits after day 6.

Those profits will come out of your pile as prices decrease.

Just another fund day in the market.

Regards 

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BARRY JOHNSON
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Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 20:50
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Mark has the right idea. You can also sift through the holdings of those ETFs and pick and choose among them. However, the recent trajectory of the market is scaring me off for now (and that's very rare). Remember to be fearful when others are greedy! 😁

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Rob Adams
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Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 16:41
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

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MARK SHEINGOLD
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Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2026 16:14
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

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MA|Investor-NV
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Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2026 13:27
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------






Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2026 11:34
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------







Original Message:
Sent: 05-28-2026 15:40
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Mark has the right idea. You can also sift through the holdings of those ETFs and pick and choose among them. However, the recent trajectory of the market is scaring me off for now (and that's very rare). Remember to be fearful when others are greedy! 😁

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Don't touch the 3x or 3x short version.  That is for 3 - 5 day trades.  Not for buy and hold.  

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Sure, I am not touching the leveraged ETFs. but still worry about their effects. 

Don't touch the 3x or 3x short version.  That is for 3 - 5 day trades.  Not for buy and hold.  

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Don't touch the 3x or 3x short version.  That is for 3 - 5 day trades.  Not for buy and hold.  

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------


Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 22:49
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------



Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 16:41
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------




Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2026 16:14
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------





Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2026 13:27
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------






Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2026 11:34
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------







Original Message:
Sent: 05-28-2026 15:40
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

I have to disagree slightly with Mark on the 3x ETFs. In January 2022, I began a 10-year experiment of holding TQQQ. That first block that I bought is up about 200% in four-and-a-half years. I later averaged down in it, and I bought TECL and SOXL with the same idea of holding them. One of my blocks of SOXL is up over 3,000% in about 15 months! (I'm still kicking myself for selling a bunch of SOXL at 102-and-change out of our Roth accounts, although I made a nice profit on it. 😢) I don't expect SOXL to stay where it is forever, but I do expect that in another five or six years it will be substantially higher than it is now. My average gain in both TQQQ and TECL is around 350% with an average hold time of less than 4 years. My average gain in SOXL is about 780% in less than 3 years. I'll let y'all know how it all turns out when I get to the end of my experiment.

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------


Original Message:
Sent: 06-03-2026 13:12
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Don't touch the 3x or 3x short version.  That is for 3 - 5 day trades.  Not for buy and hold.  

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------



Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 22:49
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------




Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 16:41
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------





Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2026 16:14
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------






Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2026 13:27
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------







Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2026 11:34
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------








Original Message:
Sent: 05-28-2026 15:40
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

That is true.  I have heard similar statistics, but in a bad market you can lose 85% quickly.   Here is how the math works.    The stock is at 100.  Day one the stock is  up 1% and is up to 101.  Day 1, the triple is up 3% and is at 103.  Day 2, the stock is down 1%.   It's at 99.99.   A little worse than 100.  For the triple, it is 99.91.   Clearly worse.   Day 3, the stock is up 2%.   The stock is 101.9.    Day 3 the triple is at 105.9.  Day 4, the stock is down 3%.    The stock is at 98.84.  The triple is at 96.37.  so you can see how the math works against you.   I spent too much time on this.   

I have to disagree slightly with Mark on the 3x ETFs. In January 2022, I began a 10-year experiment of holding TQQQ. That first block that I bought is up about 200% in four-and-a-half years. I later averaged down in it, and I bought TECL and SOXL with the same idea of holding them. One of my blocks of SOXL is up over 3,000% in about 15 months! (I'm still kicking myself for selling a bunch of SOXL at 102-and-change out of our Roth accounts, although I made a nice profit on it. 😢) I don't expect SOXL to stay where it is forever, but I do expect that in another five or six years it will be substantially higher than it is now. My average gain in both TQQQ and TECL is around 350% with an average hold time of less than 4 years. My average gain in SOXL is about 780% in less than 3 years. I'll let y'all know how it all turns out when I get to the end of my experiment.

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------



Original Message:
Sent: 06-03-2026 13:12
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Don't touch the 3x or 3x short version.  That is for 3 - 5 day trades.  Not for buy and hold.  

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------




Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 22:49
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------





Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 16:41
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------






Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2026 16:14
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------







Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2026 13:27
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------








Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2026 11:34
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------









Original Message:
Sent: 05-28-2026 15:40
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

I am looking at a long hold.   Assuming AI is in the early innings, in the long run hopefully it will pay off.  

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Given all of the current activity about IPO's, I asked ChatGPT about the performance of the average IPO over the first year and was surprised by the results...

• Falling below the IPO price
  • Research covering U.S. IPOs from 1990–2022 found that almost half of IPOs closed below their offer price one year after the IPO.
  • That means about 50% end the first year below the IPO price, but not necessarily by 50%.
• Experiencing a 50% drop at some point
  • One academic study defined an "initial failure" as a stock dropping at least 50% from its first trading-day close within one year and found this was common enough to warrant extensive study.
  • But it is not true that a majority of IPOs necessarily suffer a 50% decline.
• Average drawdown
  • The average IPO's worst decline during its first year was about 49%, which is probably the statistic you heard.

I am looking at a long hold.   Assuming AI is in the early innings, in the long run hopefully it will pay off.  

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

Given all of the current activity about IPO's, I asked ChatGPT about the performance of the average IPO over the first year and was surprised by the results...

• Falling below the IPO price
  • Research covering U.S. IPOs from 1990–2022 found that almost half of IPOs closed below their offer price one year after the IPO.
  • That means about 50% end the first year below the IPO price, but not necessarily by 50%.
• Experiencing a 50% drop at some point
  • One academic study defined an "initial failure" as a stock dropping at least 50% from its first trading-day close within one year and found this was common enough to warrant extensive study.
  • But it is not true that a majority of IPOs necessarily suffer a 50% decline.
• Average drawdown
  • The average IPO's worst decline during its first year was about 49%, which is probably the statistic you heard.

------------------------------
SANDY HARLOW
------------------------------


Original Message:
Sent: 06-03-2026 13:13
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

I am looking at a long hold.   Assuming AI is in the early innings, in the long run hopefully it will pay off.  

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------



Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 22:49
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------




Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 16:41
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------





Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2026 16:14
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------






Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2026 13:27
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------







Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2026 11:34
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------








Original Message:
Sent: 05-28-2026 15:40
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Here is some more data and opinion on IPOs, specially spaceX IPO. . https://youtu.be/e33UP-pSdzA?si=jOCNqYYlrkqb9MXP

I thought the concern was that the bubble might burst.

Wu

------------------------------
WU ZHENG
------------------------------


Original Message:
Sent: 06-04-2026 12:46
From: SANDY HARLOW
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Given all of the current activity about IPO's, I asked ChatGPT about the performance of the average IPO over the first year and was surprised by the results...

• Falling below the IPO price
  • Research covering U.S. IPOs from 1990–2022 found that almost half of IPOs closed below their offer price one year after the IPO.
  • That means about 50% end the first year below the IPO price, but not necessarily by 50%.
• Experiencing a 50% drop at some point
  • One academic study defined an "initial failure" as a stock dropping at least 50% from its first trading-day close within one year and found this was common enough to warrant extensive study.
  • But it is not true that a majority of IPOs necessarily suffer a 50% decline.
• Average drawdown
  • The average IPO's worst decline during its first year was about 49%, which is probably the statistic you heard.

------------------------------
SANDY HARLOW
------------------------------


Original Message:
Sent: 06-03-2026 13:13
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

I am looking at a long hold.   Assuming AI is in the early innings, in the long run hopefully it will pay off.  

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------



Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 22:49
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------




Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 16:41
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------





Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2026 16:14
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------






Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2026 13:27
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------







Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2026 11:34
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------

Here is some more data and opinion on IPOs, specially spaceX IPO. . https://youtu.be/e33UP-pSdzA?si=jOCNqYYlrkqb9MXP

I thought the concern was that the bubble might burst.

Wu

------------------------------
WU ZHENG
------------------------------


Original Message:
Sent: 06-04-2026 12:46
From: SANDY HARLOW
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Given all of the current activity about IPO's, I asked ChatGPT about the performance of the average IPO over the first year and was surprised by the results...

• Falling below the IPO price
  • Research covering U.S. IPOs from 1990–2022 found that almost half of IPOs closed below their offer price one year after the IPO.
  • That means about 50% end the first year below the IPO price, but not necessarily by 50%.
• Experiencing a 50% drop at some point
  • One academic study defined an "initial failure" as a stock dropping at least 50% from its first trading-day close within one year and found this was common enough to warrant extensive study.
  • But it is not true that a majority of IPOs necessarily suffer a 50% decline.
• Average drawdown
  • The average IPO's worst decline during its first year was about 49%, which is probably the statistic you heard.

------------------------------
SANDY HARLOW
------------------------------



Original Message:
Sent: 06-03-2026 13:13
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

I am looking at a long hold.   Assuming AI is in the early innings, in the long run hopefully it will pay off.  

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------




Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 22:49
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------





Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 16:41
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------






Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2026 16:14
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------







Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2026 13:27
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------








Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2026 11:34
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------









Original Message:
Sent: 05-28-2026 15:40
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Hi Wu - Thanks for sharing. This is very useful. How materially does this change ones decision to get into SPCX? On the positive side, we may not have to wait till the lockup expiry to get in. Price discovery can happen much earlier. Do you consider lockup expiry when investing in IPO?

Here is some more data and opinion on IPOs, specially spaceX IPO. . https://youtu.be/e33UP-pSdzA?si=jOCNqYYlrkqb9MXP

I thought the concern was that the bubble might burst.

Wu

------------------------------
WU ZHENG
------------------------------



Original Message:
Sent: 06-04-2026 12:46
From: SANDY HARLOW
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Given all of the current activity about IPO's, I asked ChatGPT about the performance of the average IPO over the first year and was surprised by the results...

• Falling below the IPO price
  • Research covering U.S. IPOs from 1990–2022 found that almost half of IPOs closed below their offer price one year after the IPO.
  • That means about 50% end the first year below the IPO price, but not necessarily by 50%.
• Experiencing a 50% drop at some point
  • One academic study defined an "initial failure" as a stock dropping at least 50% from its first trading-day close within one year and found this was common enough to warrant extensive study.
  • But it is not true that a majority of IPOs necessarily suffer a 50% decline.
• Average drawdown
  • The average IPO's worst decline during its first year was about 49%, which is probably the statistic you heard.

------------------------------
SANDY HARLOW
------------------------------




Original Message:
Sent: 06-03-2026 13:13
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

I am looking at a long hold.   Assuming AI is in the early innings, in the long run hopefully it will pay off.  

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------





Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 22:49
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------






Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 16:41
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------







Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2026 16:14
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------








Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2026 13:27
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------









Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2026 11:34
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------










Original Message:
Sent: 05-28-2026 15:40
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Vinod,

I plan to observe it and wait for it to fall over, then short it. But every investor is different, when timing is right, both long and short can make money. For spacex, I plan to be on the short side.

Wu

Hi Wu - Thanks for sharing. This is very useful. How materially does this change ones decision to get into SPCX? On the positive side, we may not have to wait till the lockup expiry to get in. Price discovery can happen much earlier. Do you consider lockup expiry when investing in IPO?

Here is some more data and opinion on IPOs, specially spaceX IPO. . https://youtu.be/e33UP-pSdzA?si=jOCNqYYlrkqb9MXP

I thought the concern was that the bubble might burst.

Wu

------------------------------
WU ZHENG
------------------------------




Original Message:
Sent: 06-04-2026 12:46
From: SANDY HARLOW
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Given all of the current activity about IPO's, I asked ChatGPT about the performance of the average IPO over the first year and was surprised by the results...

• Falling below the IPO price
  • Research covering U.S. IPOs from 1990–2022 found that almost half of IPOs closed below their offer price one year after the IPO.
  • That means about 50% end the first year below the IPO price, but not necessarily by 50%.
• Experiencing a 50% drop at some point
  • One academic study defined an "initial failure" as a stock dropping at least 50% from its first trading-day close within one year and found this was common enough to warrant extensive study.
  • But it is not true that a majority of IPOs necessarily suffer a 50% decline.
• Average drawdown
  • The average IPO's worst decline during its first year was about 49%, which is probably the statistic you heard.

------------------------------
SANDY HARLOW
------------------------------





Original Message:
Sent: 06-03-2026 13:13
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

I am looking at a long hold.   Assuming AI is in the early innings, in the long run hopefully it will pay off.  

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------






Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 22:49
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------







Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 16:41
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------








Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2026 16:14
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------









Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2026 13:27
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------










Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2026 11:34
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------











Original Message:
Sent: 05-28-2026 15:40
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Wu Zheng, why no just buy a put instead of shorting it?

Vinod,

I plan to observe it and wait for it to fall over, then short it. But every investor is different, when timing is right, both long and short can make money. For spacex, I plan to be on the short side.

Wu

Hi Wu - Thanks for sharing. This is very useful. How materially does this change ones decision to get into SPCX? On the positive side, we may not have to wait till the lockup expiry to get in. Price discovery can happen much earlier. Do you consider lockup expiry when investing in IPO?

Here is some more data and opinion on IPOs, specially spaceX IPO. . https://youtu.be/e33UP-pSdzA?si=jOCNqYYlrkqb9MXP

I thought the concern was that the bubble might burst.

Wu

------------------------------
WU ZHENG
------------------------------




Original Message:
Sent: 06-04-2026 12:46
From: SANDY HARLOW
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Given all of the current activity about IPO's, I asked ChatGPT about the performance of the average IPO over the first year and was surprised by the results...

• Falling below the IPO price
  • Research covering U.S. IPOs from 1990–2022 found that almost half of IPOs closed below their offer price one year after the IPO.
  • That means about 50% end the first year below the IPO price, but not necessarily by 50%.
• Experiencing a 50% drop at some point
  • One academic study defined an "initial failure" as a stock dropping at least 50% from its first trading-day close within one year and found this was common enough to warrant extensive study.
  • But it is not true that a majority of IPOs necessarily suffer a 50% decline.
• Average drawdown
  • The average IPO's worst decline during its first year was about 49%, which is probably the statistic you heard.

------------------------------
SANDY HARLOW
------------------------------





Original Message:
Sent: 06-03-2026 13:13
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

I am looking at a long hold.   Assuming AI is in the early innings, in the long run hopefully it will pay off.  

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------






Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 22:49
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------







Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 16:41
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------








Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2026 16:14
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------









Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2026 13:27
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------










Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2026 11:34
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------

Wu Zheng, why no just buy a put instead of shorting it?

Vinod,

I plan to observe it and wait for it to fall over, then short it. But every investor is different, when timing is right, both long and short can make money. For spacex, I plan to be on the short side.

Wu

Hi Wu - Thanks for sharing. This is very useful. How materially does this change ones decision to get into SPCX? On the positive side, we may not have to wait till the lockup expiry to get in. Price discovery can happen much earlier. Do you consider lockup expiry when investing in IPO?

Here is some more data and opinion on IPOs, specially spaceX IPO. . https://youtu.be/e33UP-pSdzA?si=jOCNqYYlrkqb9MXP

I thought the concern was that the bubble might burst.

Wu

------------------------------
WU ZHENG
------------------------------





Original Message:
Sent: 06-04-2026 12:46
From: SANDY HARLOW
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Given all of the current activity about IPO's, I asked ChatGPT about the performance of the average IPO over the first year and was surprised by the results...

• Falling below the IPO price
  • Research covering U.S. IPOs from 1990–2022 found that almost half of IPOs closed below their offer price one year after the IPO.
  • That means about 50% end the first year below the IPO price, but not necessarily by 50%.
• Experiencing a 50% drop at some point
  • One academic study defined an "initial failure" as a stock dropping at least 50% from its first trading-day close within one year and found this was common enough to warrant extensive study.
  • But it is not true that a majority of IPOs necessarily suffer a 50% decline.
• Average drawdown
  • The average IPO's worst decline during its first year was about 49%, which is probably the statistic you heard.

------------------------------
SANDY HARLOW
------------------------------






Original Message:
Sent: 06-03-2026 13:13
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

I am looking at a long hold.   Assuming AI is in the early innings, in the long run hopefully it will pay off.  

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------







Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 22:49
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------








Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 16:41
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------









Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2026 16:14
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------










Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2026 13:27
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------











Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2026 11:34
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------

Have you looked into DITM leaps.   That would give you 2 - 3 years to be right.   Here is a book on how to use them.   Just do the same thing only do it with puts, not calls.  

https://www.amazon.com/INTRINSIC-Using-LEAPS-Retire-Early/dp/0578814161/ref=sr_1_1?crid=18YZM6XHF0P0T&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.3EJKNNFS5tYAthAlbn_eLghLtGgVw0p20O-5m0k87dk8LHVf3j99gtwrU5kY7yrsMqZDVJlWlvGAaLVnmLBLKAZ4ppwGKsEarTvJNTzpBoeWaQnKOUPSzUWLfHg04DPVwoOOIjTxMvQxMESZCYYpGiQQPKphHN7VcwHacyaWzNhb55oI-Ncai9WgTT_ehRG9fM_XSqjrlkA_t7JMTOnyrsOOCpTsgBRlT4oZaMXHxI0.mbPrQ056JuBAjTYdOv9zsVyNckIwynGpudUZEOZi6QI&dib_tag=se&keywords=intrinsic&qid=1780777131&sprefix=intrinsic%2Caps%2C212&sr=8-1

Wu Zheng, why no just buy a put instead of shorting it?

Vinod,

I plan to observe it and wait for it to fall over, then short it. But every investor is different, when timing is right, both long and short can make money. For spacex, I plan to be on the short side.

Wu

Hi Wu - Thanks for sharing. This is very useful. How materially does this change ones decision to get into SPCX? On the positive side, we may not have to wait till the lockup expiry to get in. Price discovery can happen much earlier. Do you consider lockup expiry when investing in IPO?

Here is some more data and opinion on IPOs, specially spaceX IPO. . https://youtu.be/e33UP-pSdzA?si=jOCNqYYlrkqb9MXP

I thought the concern was that the bubble might burst.

Wu

------------------------------
WU ZHENG
------------------------------





Original Message:
Sent: 06-04-2026 12:46
From: SANDY HARLOW
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Given all of the current activity about IPO's, I asked ChatGPT about the performance of the average IPO over the first year and was surprised by the results...

• Falling below the IPO price
  • Research covering U.S. IPOs from 1990–2022 found that almost half of IPOs closed below their offer price one year after the IPO.
  • That means about 50% end the first year below the IPO price, but not necessarily by 50%.
• Experiencing a 50% drop at some point
  • One academic study defined an "initial failure" as a stock dropping at least 50% from its first trading-day close within one year and found this was common enough to warrant extensive study.
  • But it is not true that a majority of IPOs necessarily suffer a 50% decline.
• Average drawdown
  • The average IPO's worst decline during its first year was about 49%, which is probably the statistic you heard.

------------------------------
SANDY HARLOW
------------------------------






Original Message:
Sent: 06-03-2026 13:13
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

I am looking at a long hold.   Assuming AI is in the early innings, in the long run hopefully it will pay off.  

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------







Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 22:49
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------








Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 16:41
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------









Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2026 16:14
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------










Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2026 13:27
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------











Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2026 11:34
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------

Have you looked into DITM leaps.   That would give you 2 - 3 years to be right.   Here is a book on how to use them.   Just do the same thing only do it with puts, not calls.  

https://www.amazon.com/INTRINSIC-Using-LEAPS-Retire-Early/dp/0578814161/ref=sr_1_1?crid=18YZM6XHF0P0T&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.3EJKNNFS5tYAthAlbn_eLghLtGgVw0p20O-5m0k87dk8LHVf3j99gtwrU5kY7yrsMqZDVJlWlvGAaLVnmLBLKAZ4ppwGKsEarTvJNTzpBoeWaQnKOUPSzUWLfHg04DPVwoOOIjTxMvQxMESZCYYpGiQQPKphHN7VcwHacyaWzNhb55oI-Ncai9WgTT_ehRG9fM_XSqjrlkA_t7JMTOnyrsOOCpTsgBRlT4oZaMXHxI0.mbPrQ056JuBAjTYdOv9zsVyNckIwynGpudUZEOZi6QI&dib_tag=se&keywords=intrinsic&qid=1780777131&sprefix=intrinsic%2Caps%2C212&sr=8-1

Wu Zheng, why no just buy a put instead of shorting it?

Vinod,

I plan to observe it and wait for it to fall over, then short it. But every investor is different, when timing is right, both long and short can make money. For spacex, I plan to be on the short side.

Wu

Hi Wu - Thanks for sharing. This is very useful. How materially does this change ones decision to get into SPCX? On the positive side, we may not have to wait till the lockup expiry to get in. Price discovery can happen much earlier. Do you consider lockup expiry when investing in IPO?

Here is some more data and opinion on IPOs, specially spaceX IPO. . https://youtu.be/e33UP-pSdzA?si=jOCNqYYlrkqb9MXP

I thought the concern was that the bubble might burst.

Wu

------------------------------
WU ZHENG
------------------------------






Original Message:
Sent: 06-04-2026 12:46
From: SANDY HARLOW
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Given all of the current activity about IPO's, I asked ChatGPT about the performance of the average IPO over the first year and was surprised by the results...

• Falling below the IPO price
  • Research covering U.S. IPOs from 1990–2022 found that almost half of IPOs closed below their offer price one year after the IPO.
  • That means about 50% end the first year below the IPO price, but not necessarily by 50%.
• Experiencing a 50% drop at some point
  • One academic study defined an "initial failure" as a stock dropping at least 50% from its first trading-day close within one year and found this was common enough to warrant extensive study.
  • But it is not true that a majority of IPOs necessarily suffer a 50% decline.
• Average drawdown
  • The average IPO's worst decline during its first year was about 49%, which is probably the statistic you heard.

------------------------------
SANDY HARLOW
------------------------------







Original Message:
Sent: 06-03-2026 13:13
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

I am looking at a long hold.   Assuming AI is in the early innings, in the long run hopefully it will pay off.  

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------








Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 22:49
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------









Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 16:41
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------










Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2026 16:14
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------











Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2026 13:27
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------












Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2026 11:34
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------

Wu Zheng, why no just buy a put instead of shorting it?

Vinod,

I plan to observe it and wait for it to fall over, then short it. But every investor is different, when timing is right, both long and short can make money. For spacex, I plan to be on the short side.

Wu

Hi Wu - Thanks for sharing. This is very useful. How materially does this change ones decision to get into SPCX? On the positive side, we may not have to wait till the lockup expiry to get in. Price discovery can happen much earlier. Do you consider lockup expiry when investing in IPO?

Here is some more data and opinion on IPOs, specially spaceX IPO. . https://youtu.be/e33UP-pSdzA?si=jOCNqYYlrkqb9MXP

I thought the concern was that the bubble might burst.

Wu

------------------------------
WU ZHENG
------------------------------





Original Message:
Sent: 06-04-2026 12:46
From: SANDY HARLOW
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Given all of the current activity about IPO's, I asked ChatGPT about the performance of the average IPO over the first year and was surprised by the results...

• Falling below the IPO price
  • Research covering U.S. IPOs from 1990–2022 found that almost half of IPOs closed below their offer price one year after the IPO.
  • That means about 50% end the first year below the IPO price, but not necessarily by 50%.
• Experiencing a 50% drop at some point
  • One academic study defined an "initial failure" as a stock dropping at least 50% from its first trading-day close within one year and found this was common enough to warrant extensive study.
  • But it is not true that a majority of IPOs necessarily suffer a 50% decline.
• Average drawdown
  • The average IPO's worst decline during its first year was about 49%, which is probably the statistic you heard.

------------------------------
SANDY HARLOW
------------------------------






Original Message:
Sent: 06-03-2026 13:13
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

I am looking at a long hold.   Assuming AI is in the early innings, in the long run hopefully it will pay off.  

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------







Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 22:49
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------








Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 16:41
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------









Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2026 16:14
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------










Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2026 13:27
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------











Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2026 11:34
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------












Original Message:
Sent: 05-28-2026 15:40
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Here is some more data and opinion on IPOs, specially spaceX IPO. . https://youtu.be/e33UP-pSdzA?si=jOCNqYYlrkqb9MXP

I thought the concern was that the bubble might burst.

Wu

------------------------------
WU ZHENG
------------------------------


Original Message:
Sent: 06-04-2026 12:46
From: SANDY HARLOW
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Given all of the current activity about IPO's, I asked ChatGPT about the performance of the average IPO over the first year and was surprised by the results...

• Falling below the IPO price
  • Research covering U.S. IPOs from 1990–2022 found that almost half of IPOs closed below their offer price one year after the IPO.
  • That means about 50% end the first year below the IPO price, but not necessarily by 50%.
• Experiencing a 50% drop at some point
  • One academic study defined an "initial failure" as a stock dropping at least 50% from its first trading-day close within one year and found this was common enough to warrant extensive study.
  • But it is not true that a majority of IPOs necessarily suffer a 50% decline.
• Average drawdown
  • The average IPO's worst decline during its first year was about 49%, which is probably the statistic you heard.

------------------------------
SANDY HARLOW
------------------------------



Original Message:
Sent: 06-03-2026 13:13
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

I am looking at a long hold.   Assuming AI is in the early innings, in the long run hopefully it will pay off.  

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------




Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 22:49
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------





Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 16:41
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------






Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2026 16:14
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------







Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2026 13:27
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------








Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2026 11:34
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Rob! There is a lot of promise and hype about AI. How does one position with the tactical allocation with the growth portion of his portfolio. Strangely there are companies which looks like value in this sector. If you look at the korean firms they are look dirt cheap even after the massive run. How much champagne flow are you expecting from yacht investment or cash outflow? 😄

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------









Original Message:
Sent: 05-28-2026 15:40
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

(I'll repeat here my response to you on the "Beginning Investors" page:)

I humbly suggest that the best way to "navigate this market" is the same way one should ALWAYS navigate the market. One should buy good equities when they're reasonably priced and hold onto them until (1) they're no longer "good" or (2) until one finds something SUBSTANTIALLY better to buy. 

Right now, I cannot find any good equities that I would call reasonably priced, so I'm just staying the course with what I have and allowing my cash reserves to build. I know this party won't last, but right now I'm enjoying it immensely! Buying a yacht is starting to look more and more prudent. 😁

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Here is a link to a Morningstar research paper on AI stocks and IPOs that may help you evaluate AI opportunities.

https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt9415ea4cc4157833/bltef88605200a90ed5/Opportunities-in-AI-US.pdf?utm_source=eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=res_na_usa_n_en_2606_bf_n_n_researchinsidernewsletter&utm_content=_74668&utm_id=36394

Regards

Here is some more data and opinion on IPOs, specially spaceX IPO. . https://youtu.be/e33UP-pSdzA?si=jOCNqYYlrkqb9MXP

I thought the concern was that the bubble might burst.

Wu

------------------------------
WU ZHENG
------------------------------



Original Message:
Sent: 06-04-2026 12:46
From: SANDY HARLOW
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Given all of the current activity about IPO's, I asked ChatGPT about the performance of the average IPO over the first year and was surprised by the results...

• Falling below the IPO price
  • Research covering U.S. IPOs from 1990–2022 found that almost half of IPOs closed below their offer price one year after the IPO.
  • That means about 50% end the first year below the IPO price, but not necessarily by 50%.
• Experiencing a 50% drop at some point
  • One academic study defined an "initial failure" as a stock dropping at least 50% from its first trading-day close within one year and found this was common enough to warrant extensive study.
  • But it is not true that a majority of IPOs necessarily suffer a 50% decline.
• Average drawdown
  • The average IPO's worst decline during its first year was about 49%, which is probably the statistic you heard.

------------------------------
SANDY HARLOW
------------------------------




Original Message:
Sent: 06-03-2026 13:13
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

I am looking at a long hold.   Assuming AI is in the early innings, in the long run hopefully it will pay off.  

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------





Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 22:49
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Thanks Mark. SOXX is warm or may be hot. Looking deeper into SOXX, It has a volume of 7m. Then there is a 3X version of it, which has a 70m volume. There is also the 3x short version with big volume but the dollar amout is small. What should I make out of these? Is it a good thing or a bad thing or benign?  

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------






Original Message:
Sent: 06-02-2026 16:41
From: MARK SHEINGOLD
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

This is how I would navigate the AI market.  A few assumptions.  We are in the early innings and we don't know the winners.  Also, we want the AI infrastructure stocks.   So this is what I would do.  Use ETFs.  Soxx for AI chip stocks.   Grid to make the grid smarter.   ELFY to build more electric power plants, and IDGT, to build Data Centers.   

------------------------------
MARK SHEINGOLD
------------------------------







Original Message:
Sent: 06-01-2026 16:14
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Rob, Whatever you own there is heavy concetration of tech. But AI and semis are on a tear. Dont know how long it will last. There are some like hynix which is an alternative to MU which is not an ADR yet. MU is too expensive that is why i consider buying korean listed stock. Good to stay from chemicals and solvents. Society has become so permissive to these stuf. True, a lot of horror stories about cruises. Enjoy you yacht!

One question, I received an aaii email from a member I assume, which I am not able to reply or search for his name. I did contract ssii member services but still waiting for their response. Are there any video or material about the social function of aaii community and how communications outside these message boards

Thanks

Vinod

------------------------------
MA|Investor-NV
------------------------------








Original Message:
Sent: 05-31-2026 13:27
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back

Vinod, my entire portfolio is focused on nothing but growth. Naturally, it doesn't always happen with everything I buy, but if an asset isn't producing portfolio growth within a few years, I get rid of it and replace it with something I think will grow like a weed. The focus on growth has of course led to a concentration in tech companies, and those in turn include so-called AI companies. The thing is, I bought them when they were not so heavily favored by the market. Buying a stock at its all-time high is dangerous.

I generally shy away from foreign companies. There are too many good ones here at home. I do have stakes in one Canadian company and one Irish firm, but both do most of their business in the US, and neither is currently among my top performers.

Champagne won't do me any good. I briefly experimented with certain chemical substances, including alcohol, in my teenage years, but I quickly decided they did not need to be a part of my life. There are too many good things to see and do and think about to waste time clouding my brain. (It's already fuzzy enough.) Just my humble opinion. To each his own! 😁

As for the yacht, I think it's more prudent to get together with friends and charter one for few weeks per year instead of owning it. We can cruise anywhere in the world without having to sail across the Atlantic or Pacific to get there. A private yacht beats the heck out of one of those giant floating petri dishes!

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------









Original Message:
Sent: 05-29-2026 11:34
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Contrarian Indicator is back