Here are two recent articles attached with different perspectives on the outlook for inflation. My perspective is that inflation is unlikely to decline to the Fed's target level of 2% anytime soon. The M2 money supply growth rate, which has a high correlation with the inflation rate remains robust. Plus, a relatively high inflation remains imbedded in the economy--especially in consumer categories with few substitutes like utilities, insurance and housing/rent.
I also don't understand why the Fed should feel pressure to lower interest rates this year. Interest rates are not inordinately high, they have just been normalized from artificially low interest rates that the Fed maintained for too long-especially given a relatively strong economy for most of this time period.
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TODD BLICKENSTAFF
President and Program Chairman Chair
Portland, OR chapter
American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)
trblick@gmail.com------------------------------