Is there value anywhere?

6. RE: Is there value anywhere?

Recommend

Vinod Nair

Posted 03-14-2023 15:51
Edited by Vinod Nair 07-18-2023 15:58

Rob - I think the direction of the general market is more important now than before. In addition to P/E and P/S another important consideration should be debt.

------------------------------
vNu
------------------------------

Original Message

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 10:24
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

When things seem at their absolute worst is the best time for buying equities. There are tons of low P/E stocks out there (and low P/S, which I prefer, as well). Most of them are smaller companies, and small companies in general have been left behind the rest of the market for many years now. If and when they'll catch up is anybody's guess.

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 03-13-2023 17:29
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Thanks Barry for the detailed reply which I greatly appreciate.

#4 : My idea of a value on a stock is also based on EPS. If I can get a return more than the CD rate I can safely get from a bank, I will consider it 'value'. If you take the case TSM, the EPS is 6.26 and the stock is at 88 which makes it 8%. However, if you take the case of MSFT 8.8/~250 = 3.5 which is lower than the current CD rate of 4% which makes it not 'value'. If you evaluate this way, most of the stocks are not 'value'. Moreover, almost half of the companies have negative EPS this year and many are not expected to earn any next year either.

#6

Thanks again for the response.

-Vinod

------------------------------
vNu

Original Message:
Sent: 03-13-2023 13:41
From: BARRY JOHNSON
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Vidnod,

#1, I, too, am worried about the increasing number of events (some of which you named above) that seem to be closely tracking the last six months before the September 2008 Great Recession.

#2, As Paul Samuelson observed, "the stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions."

#3, your cursory list of current economic woes awakens the Oracle's advice to "be greedy when others are fearful." The same nonagenarian recently said,

"I have been investing for 80 years-more than one-third of our country's lifetime. Despite our citizens' penchant-almost enthusiasm-for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long term bet against America."

#4, I am unsure how you define "value." Here is my understanding.

From a fundamental analysis perspective, value is defined as the book value (total assets - total liabilities) of a company exceeding the market price of the stock. However, the market measures "value" by Earnings Per Share because it provides the ability to compare a stock's "value" across all offerings.

Tech stocks became grossly overvalued during the recent bull market but came back to Earth during the current bear market. The EPs may be "high" by comparison, but I see value in some of these same tech stocks. If you study their 10-Ks and financial statement, I think you can find some that have value from a fundamental analysis perspective.

For example, I am following a few stocks that have

(1) a business model that gives it a competitive edge that produces cash flow or

(2) large amounts of cash on hand.

These conditions provide the ability to

(1) deploy cash at their IRR rather than at higher market interest rates, and

(2) the ability to invest in capex to improve their competitiveness (Warren's famous "moats") in R&D, marketing, distribution, etc.,

#5 Now to address your question directly, my watch list of "value" stocks includes:

(1) Companies with high percentages of cash on hand (in Billions): MSFT $248, GOOGL $90, GOOG $91, BRK-B $303, META $ 179, and TSM $87.

(2) Companies that invest the most in capex: GOOG, T, AMZN, VZN, and MSFT.

#6 Taking cues from this discussion, I am staying invested with a 50%/50% portfolio: 50% cash, 30% on the "value" stocks bolded above, and 20% on sector EFT known to be more resilient during recessions.

Does anyone else have recommendations on where to find value to help Vinod (and me)?

Sent from Mail for Windows

7. RE: Is there value anywhere?

Recommend

ROBERT ADAMS

Posted 03-14-2023 17:30

Vinod, if you can tell what direction the general market is heading tomorrow, you're far smarter than I am. All I ever know about the market is where it is now relative to where it's been. Prognosticators are always predicting either doom and gloom or "we're going to the moon!" NOBODY knows when the next bull or bear will start--or end. That's why I stay 100% invested in equities 100% of the time. It's worked well for me for the past 40+ years.

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------

Original Message

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 15:51
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Rob - I think the direction of the general market is more important now than before. In addition to P/E and P/S another important consideration should debt.

------------------------------
vNu
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 10:24
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

When things seem at their absolute worst is the best time for buying equities. There are tons of low P/E stocks out there (and low P/S, which I prefer, as well). Most of them are smaller companies, and small companies in general have been left behind the rest of the market for many years now. If and when they'll catch up is anybody's guess.

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Original Message:
Sent: 03-13-2023 17:29
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Thanks Barry for the detailed reply which I greatly appreciate.

#4 : My idea of a value on a stock is also based on EPS. If I can get a return more than the CD rate I can safely get from a bank, I will consider it 'value'. If you take the case TSM, the EPS is 6.26 and the stock is at 88 which makes it 8%. However, if you take the case of MSFT 8.8/~250 = 3.5 which is lower than the current CD rate of 4% which makes it not 'value'. If you evaluate this way, most of the stocks are not 'value'. Moreover, almost half of the companies have negative EPS this year and many are not expected to earn any next year either.

#6

Thanks again for the response.

-Vinod

------------------------------
vNu

Original Message:
Sent: 03-13-2023 13:41
From: BARRY JOHNSON
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Vidnod,

#1, I, too, am worried about the increasing number of events (some of which you named above) that seem to be closely tracking the last six months before the September 2008 Great Recession.

#2, As Paul Samuelson observed, "the stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions."

#3, your cursory list of current economic woes awakens the Oracle's advice to "be greedy when others are fearful." The same nonagenarian recently said,

"I have been investing for 80 years-more than one-third of our country's lifetime. Despite our citizens' penchant-almost enthusiasm-for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long term bet against America."

#4, I am unsure how you define "value." Here is my understanding.

From a fundamental analysis perspective, value is defined as the book value (total assets - total liabilities) of a company exceeding the market price of the stock. However, the market measures "value" by Earnings Per Share because it provides the ability to compare a stock's "value" across all offerings.

Tech stocks became grossly overvalued during the recent bull market but came back to Earth during the current bear market. The EPs may be "high" by comparison, but I see value in some of these same tech stocks. If you study their 10-Ks and financial statement, I think you can find some that have value from a fundamental analysis perspective.

For example, I am following a few stocks that have

(1) a business model that gives it a competitive edge that produces cash flow or

(2) large amounts of cash on hand.

These conditions provide the ability to

(1) deploy cash at their IRR rather than at higher market interest rates, and

(2) the ability to invest in capex to improve their competitiveness (Warren's famous "moats") in R&D, marketing, distribution, etc.,

#5 Now to address your question directly, my watch list of "value" stocks includes:

(1) Companies with high percentages of cash on hand (in Billions): MSFT $248, GOOGL $90, GOOG $91, BRK-B $303, META $ 179, and TSM $87.

(2) Companies that invest the most in capex: GOOG, T, AMZN, VZN, and MSFT.

#6 Taking cues from this discussion, I am staying invested with a 50%/50% portfolio: 50% cash, 30% on the "value" stocks bolded above, and 20% on sector EFT known to be more resilient during recessions.

Does anyone else have recommendations on where to find value to help Vinod (and me)?

Sent from Mail for Windows

8. RE: Is there value anywhere?

Recommend

Vinod Nair

Posted 03-14-2023 19:10
Edited by Vinod Nair 03-16-2023 00:02

Rob - I am still working on it. Predicting market direction that is. 😁

I too believed that staying invested is the right thing to do. I also believed that index investing is the best approach.

However, I am starting to question those beliefs.

Do you think the low interest rate and its downward trajectory would have helped stock market in the last 40 years?

If those trends in interest reverses in the next decade, how will those be reflected in stock valuation?

------------------------------
vNu
------------------------------

Original Message

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 17:29
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Vinod, if you can tell what direction the general market is heading tomorrow, you're far smarter than I am. All I ever know about the market is where it is now relative to where it's been. Prognosticators are always predicting either doom and gloom or "we're going to the moon!" NOBODY knows when the next bull or bear will start--or end. That's why I stay 100% invested in equities 100% of the time. It's worked well for me for the past 40+ years.

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 15:51
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Rob - I think the direction of the general market is more important now than before. In addition to P/E and P/S another important consideration should debt.

------------------------------
vNu

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 10:24
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

When things seem at their absolute worst is the best time for buying equities. There are tons of low P/E stocks out there (and low P/S, which I prefer, as well). Most of them are smaller companies, and small companies in general have been left behind the rest of the market for many years now. If and when they'll catch up is anybody's guess.

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Original Message:
Sent: 03-13-2023 17:29
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Thanks Barry for the detailed reply which I greatly appreciate.

#4 : My idea of a value on a stock is also based on EPS. If I can get a return more than the CD rate I can safely get from a bank, I will consider it 'value'. If you take the case TSM, the EPS is 6.26 and the stock is at 88 which makes it 8%. However, if you take the case of MSFT 8.8/~250 = 3.5 which is lower than the current CD rate of 4% which makes it not 'value'. If you evaluate this way, most of the stocks are not 'value'. Moreover, almost half of the companies have negative EPS this year and many are not expected to earn any next year either.

#6

Thanks again for the response.

-Vinod

------------------------------
vNu

Original Message:
Sent: 03-13-2023 13:41
From: BARRY JOHNSON
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Vidnod,

#1, I, too, am worried about the increasing number of events (some of which you named above) that seem to be closely tracking the last six months before the September 2008 Great Recession.

#2, As Paul Samuelson observed, "the stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions."

#3, your cursory list of current economic woes awakens the Oracle's advice to "be greedy when others are fearful." The same nonagenarian recently said,

"I have been investing for 80 years-more than one-third of our country's lifetime. Despite our citizens' penchant-almost enthusiasm-for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long term bet against America."

#4, I am unsure how you define "value." Here is my understanding.

From a fundamental analysis perspective, value is defined as the book value (total assets - total liabilities) of a company exceeding the market price of the stock. However, the market measures "value" by Earnings Per Share because it provides the ability to compare a stock's "value" across all offerings.

Tech stocks became grossly overvalued during the recent bull market but came back to Earth during the current bear market. The EPs may be "high" by comparison, but I see value in some of these same tech stocks. If you study their 10-Ks and financial statement, I think you can find some that have value from a fundamental analysis perspective.

For example, I am following a few stocks that have

(1) a business model that gives it a competitive edge that produces cash flow or

(2) large amounts of cash on hand.

These conditions provide the ability to

(1) deploy cash at their IRR rather than at higher market interest rates, and

(2) the ability to invest in capex to improve their competitiveness (Warren's famous "moats") in R&D, marketing, distribution, etc.,

#5 Now to address your question directly, my watch list of "value" stocks includes:

(1) Companies with high percentages of cash on hand (in Billions): MSFT $248, GOOGL $90, GOOG $91, BRK-B $303, META $ 179, and TSM $87.

(2) Companies that invest the most in capex: GOOG, T, AMZN, VZN, and MSFT.

#6 Taking cues from this discussion, I am staying invested with a 50%/50% portfolio: 50% cash, 30% on the "value" stocks bolded above, and 20% on sector EFT known to be more resilient during recessions.

Does anyone else have recommendations on where to find value to help Vinod (and me)?

Sent from Mail for Windows

9. RE: Is there value anywhere?

Recommend

ROBERT ADAMS

Posted 03-14-2023 19:41
Edited by ROBERT ADAMS 03-14-2023 19:42

Vinod, artificially low interest rates have undoubtedly supported equity returns over the past decade or so. The market has been trying to sort all that out, which is part of the reason it's down so far. Rising interest rates are a drag on the economy in general, which also ends up affecting the stock market. It's possible, but in my humble opinion unlikely, that bonds will outperform stocks in the coming decade. Stocks generally hold their own in an inflationary environment.

All that said, I never make investing decisions based on where I think economic forces are heading. Things can, and do, change quickly sometimes. And usually, by the time one recognizes a sea change, it's too late to get the full benefit of acting on it.

I look at index investing as an idiot-proof enterprise. One can get market returns with very limited real risk (and I'm NOT talking about volatility). I'm a fan of it, and I taught my children to use it until they're knowledgeable enough to start buying individual stocks. If all they do is invest in low-expense-ratio equity index ETFs for the next 40 years, they should have comfortable retirements.

I've always been a buy-and-holder, and most of my life I've been under-diversified, which by luck or by craft has increased my returns greatly. But now that I'm retired, I look at diversification as insurance against my own stupidity. Index ETFs have been an easy way to establish that diversification.

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------

Original Message

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 19:10
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Rob - I am still working on it. Predicting market direction that is. 😁

I too believed that staying invested is the right thing to do. I also believed that index investing is the best approach.

However, I am starting to question those beliefs.

Do you think the low interest rate and its downward trajectory would have helped stock market in the last 40 years?

I those trends in interest reverses in the next decade, how will those be reflected in stock valuation?

------------------------------
vNu
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 17:29
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Vinod, if you can tell what direction the general market is heading tomorrow, you're far smarter than I am. All I ever know about the market is where it is now relative to where it's been. Prognosticators are always predicting either doom and gloom or "we're going to the moon!" NOBODY knows when the next bull or bear will start--or end. That's why I stay 100% invested in equities 100% of the time. It's worked well for me for the past 40+ years.

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 15:51
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Rob - I think the direction of the general market is more important now than before. In addition to P/E and P/S another important consideration should debt.

------------------------------
vNu

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 10:24
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

When things seem at their absolute worst is the best time for buying equities. There are tons of low P/E stocks out there (and low P/S, which I prefer, as well). Most of them are smaller companies, and small companies in general have been left behind the rest of the market for many years now. If and when they'll catch up is anybody's guess.

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Original Message:
Sent: 03-13-2023 17:29
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Thanks Barry for the detailed reply which I greatly appreciate.

#4 : My idea of a value on a stock is also based on EPS. If I can get a return more than the CD rate I can safely get from a bank, I will consider it 'value'. If you take the case TSM, the EPS is 6.26 and the stock is at 88 which makes it 8%. However, if you take the case of MSFT 8.8/~250 = 3.5 which is lower than the current CD rate of 4% which makes it not 'value'. If you evaluate this way, most of the stocks are not 'value'. Moreover, almost half of the companies have negative EPS this year and many are not expected to earn any next year either.

#6

Thanks again for the response.

-Vinod

------------------------------
vNu

Original Message:
Sent: 03-13-2023 13:41
From: BARRY JOHNSON
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Vidnod,

#1, I, too, am worried about the increasing number of events (some of which you named above) that seem to be closely tracking the last six months before the September 2008 Great Recession.

#2, As Paul Samuelson observed, "the stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions."

#3, your cursory list of current economic woes awakens the Oracle's advice to "be greedy when others are fearful." The same nonagenarian recently said,

"I have been investing for 80 years-more than one-third of our country's lifetime. Despite our citizens' penchant-almost enthusiasm-for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long term bet against America."

#4, I am unsure how you define "value." Here is my understanding.

From a fundamental analysis perspective, value is defined as the book value (total assets - total liabilities) of a company exceeding the market price of the stock. However, the market measures "value" by Earnings Per Share because it provides the ability to compare a stock's "value" across all offerings.

Tech stocks became grossly overvalued during the recent bull market but came back to Earth during the current bear market. The EPs may be "high" by comparison, but I see value in some of these same tech stocks. If you study their 10-Ks and financial statement, I think you can find some that have value from a fundamental analysis perspective.

For example, I am following a few stocks that have

(1) a business model that gives it a competitive edge that produces cash flow or

(2) large amounts of cash on hand.

These conditions provide the ability to

(1) deploy cash at their IRR rather than at higher market interest rates, and

(2) the ability to invest in capex to improve their competitiveness (Warren's famous "moats") in R&D, marketing, distribution, etc.,

#5 Now to address your question directly, my watch list of "value" stocks includes:

(1) Companies with high percentages of cash on hand (in Billions): MSFT $248, GOOGL $90, GOOG $91, BRK-B $303, META $ 179, and TSM $87.

(2) Companies that invest the most in capex: GOOG, T, AMZN, VZN, and MSFT.

#6 Taking cues from this discussion, I am staying invested with a 50%/50% portfolio: 50% cash, 30% on the "value" stocks bolded above, and 20% on sector EFT known to be more resilient during recessions.

Does anyone else have recommendations on where to find value to help Vinod (and me)?

Sent from Mail for Windows

13. RE: Is there value anywhere?

Recommend

ROBERT ADAMS

Posted 03-14-2023 18:09
Edited by ROBERT ADAMS 03-14-2023 18:11

I sure hope you guys are right about VZ. I just sold a couple of ETFs and used the money to create a modified Dogs of the Dow portfolio with VZ in the mix. So far, I've also accumulated AMGN, BEN, CSCO, CVX, DOW, KMB, MMM, and XOM in that portfolio. I took the highest dividend payers from the Dow 30 and from S&P's Dividend Aristocrats, but I filtered out those with low EBITDA/Enterprise Value and coverage ratios below 1.2. I have a couple more stocks to buy to fill out the mix.

I plan on holding these stocks until (1) their yield drops below 2.4%, (2) they cut their dividend, or (3) they otherwise run into financial distress.

I'm not betting the farm on this single strategy. It's just a part of my program to pare down my ETFs and create my own portfolios. In the past 10 years, all of my individual stocks have greatly outperformed my ETFs even though all of my ETFs have annualized returns of more than 10% while I've held them.

I like the diversification ETFs provide, but I think I can achieve a sufficient level of diversification by creating portfolios based on strategies that have worked over many decades. I guess we'll see.

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------

Original Message

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 16:40
From: JOSHUA DONALDSON
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Vinod, the valuation and earnings trend on Comcast looks ok to me, I just like the cellular business a little better. EVERY person has a cellular phone and account right? Not every household has cable. Comcast took a lot of DSL customers but that switchover is probably complete. I like a dedicated ISP at home, but the trend especially among the young seems to be having cellular-only. 5G may enable these devices to be a whole-house hotspot. Verizon is also offering wireless home internet services now which competes very well with cable on price and speed (without the channel content cost). I could be wrong but I just like a cellular company better for those reasons. What's your view on that?

By the way I don't see AT&T, Verizon, T-mobile as equals when it comes to customer choice. Everyone has an opinion but in my experience Verizon has better coverage in more areas including 5G now. In other words they don't compete strictly on the basis of plan prices and special offers.

------------------------------
JOSHUA
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 15:53
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Hi Joshua - VZ does look like a good value play. At least compared to T-Moble and AT&T. What do you think about comcast? They are trying to enter the same market. Their numbers too look good to me.

------------------------------
vNu

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 12:42
From: JOSHUA DONALDSON
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Vidnod, I'm not overly fixated on dividends, i don't necessarily relate it to value, I have stocks with zero dividend I consider to be excellent values (relative to forward PE and book value). A dividend certainly doesn't hurt though! Recently I've been all over DOW dog Verizon, buying shares and leap calls (Jan 2025 30's. below $8.00). Share price $36.80, divi $2.61; yield currently 7.1%, Forward PE 8.1

Any determination of value based on the share statistics has be backed up by knowledge that the company's earnings are growing not declining. Unless they're stable and you're just of the belief earnings multiple alone can provide sufficient growth. If earnings collapses, that PE that looked so good explodes upward. With a megacap like this, earnings typically don't grow a whole lot but I'm typically looking for a 1-2 year investment with 30-50% share price growth potential.

------------------------------
JOSHUA

14. RE: Is there value anywhere?

Recommend

JOSHUA DONALDSON

Posted 03-14-2023 18:29
Edited by JOSHUA DONALDSON 03-14-2023 18:39

Rob, congrats hope we both do well on VZ. I'd be cautious about MMM, there are very large liability claims being litigated. Their attempt to "spin off" and isolate those liabilities was shot down in court. Some say its priced in but that remains to be seen. This is an issue I have with using screens, they don't tell the whole story. They're nothing more than a list of ideas to consider with DD. Can't speak to the other tickers you mentioned off hand.

I'm of the same mind I like to pick individual stocks with the best prospects. I've never owned an ETF in my life there's too much grossly overpriced garbage within them. If I can cherry-pick my stocks, why wouldn't I?

------------------------------
JOSHUA
------------------------------

Original Message

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 18:08
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

I sure hope you guys are right about VZ. I just sold a couple of ETFs and used the money to create a modified Dogs of the Dow portfolio with VZ in the mix. So far, I've also accumulated AMGN, BEN, CSCO, CVX, DOW, KMB, MMM, and XOM in that portfolio. I took the highest dividend payers from the Dow 30 and from S&P's Dividend Aristocrats, but I filtered out those with low EBITDA/Enterprise Value and coverage ratios below 1.2. I have a couple more stocks to buy to fill out the mix.

I plan on holding these stocks until (1) their yield drops below 2.4%, (2) they cut their dividend, or (3) they otherwise run into financial distress.

I'm not betting the farm on this single strategy. It's just a part of my program to pare down my ETFs and create my own portfolios. In the past 10 years, all of my individual stocks have greatly outperformed my ETFs even though all of my ETFs have annualized returns of more than 10% while I've held them.

I like the diversification ETFs provide, but I think I can achieve a sufficient level of diversification by creating portfolios based on strategies that have worked over many decades. I guess we'll see.

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 16:40
From: JOSHUA DONALDSON
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Vinod, the valuation and earnings trend on Comcast looks ok to me, I just like the cellular business a little better. EVERY person has a cellular phone and account right? Not every household has cable. Comcast took a lot of DSL customers but that switchover is probably complete. I like a dedicated ISP at home, but the trend especially among the young seems to be having cellular-only. 5G may enable these devices to be a whole-house hotspot. Verizon is also offering wireless home internet services now which competes very well with cable on price and speed (without the channel content cost). I could be wrong but I just like a cellular company better for those reasons. What's your view on that?

By the way I don't see AT&T, Verizon, T-mobile as equals when it comes to customer choice. Everyone has an opinion but in my experience Verizon has better coverage in more areas including 5G now. In other words they don't compete strictly on the basis of plan prices and special offers.

------------------------------
JOSHUA

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 15:53
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Hi Joshua - VZ does look like a good value play. At least compared to T-Moble and AT&T. What do you think about comcast? They are trying to enter the same market. Their numbers too look good to me.

------------------------------
vNu

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 12:42
From: JOSHUA DONALDSON
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Vidnod, I'm not overly fixated on dividends, i don't necessarily relate it to value, I have stocks with zero dividend I consider to be excellent values (relative to forward PE and book value). A dividend certainly doesn't hurt though! Recently I've been all over DOW dog Verizon, buying shares and leap calls (Jan 2025 30's. below $8.00). Share price $36.80, divi $2.61; yield currently 7.1%, Forward PE 8.1

Any determination of value based on the share statistics has be backed up by knowledge that the company's earnings are growing not declining. Unless they're stable and you're just of the belief earnings multiple alone can provide sufficient growth. If earnings collapses, that PE that looked so good explodes upward. With a megacap like this, earnings typically don't grow a whole lot but I'm typically looking for a 1-2 year investment with 30-50% share price growth potential.

------------------------------
JOSHUA

15. RE: Is there value anywhere?

Recommend

ROBERT ADAMS

Posted 03-14-2023 19:14

Joshua, thank you for the heads up. I'm aware of the MMM litigation; that's what has brought the price down and the yield up. That recent ruling is on expedited appeal now, and one never knows what the court system will end up doing. I rely on a reasonable amount of diversification, coupled with time, to take care of issues like this. If it comes down to it, I can always make use of the tax loss.

------------------------------
Rob Adams
------------------------------

Original Message

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 18:29
From: JOSHUA DONALDSON
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Rob, congrats hope we both do well on VZ. I'd be cautious about MMM, there are very large liability claims being litigated. Their attempt to "spin off" and isolate those liabilities was shot down in court. Some say its priced in but that remains to be seen. This is an issue I have with using screens, they don't tell the whole story. They're nothing more than a list of ideas to consider with DD. Can't speak to the other tickers you mentioned off hand.

I'm of the same mind I like to pick individual stocks with the best prospects. I've never owned an ETF in my life there's too much grossly overpriced garbage within them. If I can cherry-pick my stocks, why wouldn't I?

------------------------------
JOSHUA
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 18:08
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

I sure hope you guys are right about VZ. I just sold a couple of ETFs and used the money to create a modified Dogs of the Dow portfolio with VZ in the mix. So far, I've also accumulated AMGN, BEN, CSCO, CVX, DOW, KMB, MMM, and XOM in that portfolio. I took the highest dividend payers from the Dow 30 and from S&P's Dividend Aristocrats, but I filtered out those with low EBITDA/Enterprise Value and coverage ratios below 1.2. I have a couple more stocks to buy to fill out the mix.

I plan on holding these stocks until (1) their yield drops below 2.4%, (2) they cut their dividend, or (3) they otherwise run into financial distress.

I'm not betting the farm on this single strategy. It's just a part of my program to pare down my ETFs and create my own portfolios. In the past 10 years, all of my individual stocks have greatly outperformed my ETFs even though all of my ETFs have annualized returns of more than 10% while I've held them.

I like the diversification ETFs provide, but I think I can achieve a sufficient level of diversification by creating portfolios based on strategies that have worked over many decades. I guess we'll see.

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Rob Adams

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 16:40
From: JOSHUA DONALDSON
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Vinod, the valuation and earnings trend on Comcast looks ok to me, I just like the cellular business a little better. EVERY person has a cellular phone and account right? Not every household has cable. Comcast took a lot of DSL customers but that switchover is probably complete. I like a dedicated ISP at home, but the trend especially among the young seems to be having cellular-only. 5G may enable these devices to be a whole-house hotspot. Verizon is also offering wireless home internet services now which competes very well with cable on price and speed (without the channel content cost). I could be wrong but I just like a cellular company better for those reasons. What's your view on that?

By the way I don't see AT&T, Verizon, T-mobile as equals when it comes to customer choice. Everyone has an opinion but in my experience Verizon has better coverage in more areas including 5G now. In other words they don't compete strictly on the basis of plan prices and special offers.

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JOSHUA

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 15:53
From: Vinod Nair
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Hi Joshua - VZ does look like a good value play. At least compared to T-Moble and AT&T. What do you think about comcast? They are trying to enter the same market. Their numbers too look good to me.

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vNu

Original Message:
Sent: 03-14-2023 12:42
From: JOSHUA DONALDSON
Subject: Is there value anywhere?

Vidnod, I'm not overly fixated on dividends, i don't necessarily relate it to value, I have stocks with zero dividend I consider to be excellent values (relative to forward PE and book value). A dividend certainly doesn't hurt though! Recently I've been all over DOW dog Verizon, buying shares and leap calls (Jan 2025 30's. below $8.00). Share price $36.80, divi $2.61; yield currently 7.1%, Forward PE 8.1

Any determination of value based on the share statistics has be backed up by knowledge that the company's earnings are growing not declining. Unless they're stable and you're just of the belief earnings multiple alone can provide sufficient growth. If earnings collapses, that PE that looked so good explodes upward. With a megacap like this, earnings typically don't grow a whole lot but I'm typically looking for a 1-2 year investment with 30-50% share price growth potential.

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JOSHUA

16. RE: Is there value anywhere?

Recommend

Vinod Nair

Posted 03-14-2023 19:21

Rob - Congrats on your investment returns. That is an impressive list. However, I stay away from financial firms and oil companies. One question: Where do you find EV/EBITDA and coverage ratios?

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Thanks &
Good luck with your investments
Vinod | Boston | MA
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