Investor Sentiment

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  • 1.  Managing Portfolios During Periods of Fear

    Posted 10-15-2025 12:00

    In the article "Reading Minds: Combining AAII's Investor Pulse With BI's Community Intelligence," one insight stood out; periods of fear tend to last twice as long as periods of greed.

    When markets are driven by pessimism, investors often retreat to cash, reduce risk exposure, or wait for conditions to "feel better." Yet history shows that these extended fear periods can create some of the most rewarding long-term opportunities for disciplined investors.

    How do you personally adjust your portfolio management or allocation strategy during prolonged fear-driven markets?

    Do you stay the course, rebalance more aggressively, or lean into specific sectors or asset classes when sentiment turns overwhelmingly negative?

    I'm curious as someone who has only experience a few market cycles as an active investor, how seasoned investors have navigated the emotional stretches and what lessons you've learned from past market downturns.

    Read the full article here.



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    Jenna Brashear
    AAII Community Manager
    Chicago, IL
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  • 2.  RE: Managing Portfolios During Periods of Fear

    Posted 10-15-2025 13:24

    Stay the course! If the market takes a nosedive, it's time to BUY! When the market is at all-time highs, it's time to harvest some spending money.



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    Rob Adams
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  • 3.  RE: Managing Portfolios During Periods of Fear

    Posted 10-16-2025 10:55
    Edited by ROBERT ADAMS 10-16-2025 17:44

    The DUMBEST thing an investor could do is "adjust your portfolio management or allocation strategy during prolonged fear-driven markets"! (Well, maybe not THE dumbest, but certainly ONE of the dumbest things an investor could do.) First, once you're already in a "fear-driven" market, it's too late. And before you're in such a market, how could you ever know precisely when such a market will get here? Second, once you're in a "fear-driven" market, how can you possibly know whether it will be "prolonged" or not? In the short run, the market is a drunken manic-depressive. There is no way to predict when a bull or bear market will begin or end. Trying to do so is pure folly.

    The best strategy is one that you can stick with regardless of "market conditions." While I'm all for making strategic reallocations at appropriate times, that is merely a change in allocation, NOT a change in the underlying strategy.



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    Rob Adams
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  • 4.  RE: Managing Portfolios During Periods of Fear

    Posted 10-20-2025 14:59
    Edited by BARRY JOHNSON 10-20-2025 15:14

    A tribute to the genius of Dr. Bob as an amateurish haiku sonnet.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------

    A market is just another form of a game. 

    Strategy is paramount to win any game.

    The key to winning is a superior strategy.

    A superior strategy requires you think ahead more moves than your opponents.

    A "Level 1" [100% of players] novice strategy (think only about the next move) is to buy and sell daily.

    A "Level 2" [  50% of players] Buffett strategy (think 2 moves ahead) is to "be greedy when others are fearful."

    A "Level 3" [  10% of players] Cloonan strategy (think 3 moves ahead) is to ignore "faux" risk.

    A "Level 4" [    1% of players] Dr .Bob strategy (think 4 or more moves ahead) is to "mind your chips and "wait." 

    Checkmate. Game. Match.

    Thus endth the lesson. 

    "So desu ne?" grasshopper san. 

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    BARRY JOHNSON
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  • 5.  RE: Managing Portfolios During Periods of Fear

    Posted 10-22-2025 22:01

    Thanks Barry, but I have a ways to go to catch up with Buffett. But if I live long enough....



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    Rob Adams
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  • 6.  RE: Managing Portfolios During Periods of Fear

    Posted 11-01-2025 12:06

    Jeanna

    I guess I may be one of the few AAIIers who have taken advantage of a trial BI membership. I have no way of knowing how many have, because neither organization publishes statistics, and I have seen ZERO comments about the BI offering on any AAII communication channel, except for the few AAII webinars (maybe 3-4) and AAII articles (maybe 3-4). 

    In the 2 months so far, I have downloaded and read several dozen articles in the BI Mag. It is slicker than the AAII Journal AAII used to publish as a PDF, but BI Mag lacks depth. Every article is just another installment about the BI value investing methodology.

    This low-intensity marketing effort belies the success of the AAII-BI relationship. 

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    AAII and BI both teach members that one key statistic we should use to evaluate the "quality" of a potential "value" investment is how much of operational cash flow the company reinvests to "grow" increased cash flow through marketing (and capex, and shareholder returns, etc.).

    As an "AAII-trained investor," I would pass on investing in this "Combining AAII's Investor Pulse With BI's Community Intelligence" as a positive indication that the AAII-BI venture demonstrates sufficient "quality" and/or "value" for me to add BI to my educational portfolio.

    I am a contrarian to the persistent messaging that AAIIers will benefit from the "complementary" added value the BI offering provides. One of the key indicators was the articles promoting the BI local clubs I read and the statistics on the "quality" and "value" of the overall portfolio across all BI clubs.

    Although AAII provides no data on individual AAII member portfolios for comparisons, I have concluded that the strength of the AAII offering is in the single phrase "Independent Investors." I cannot imagine asking OTHER AAIIers to vote on MY investment choices. That is the same reason I am an "Independent Investor" who sees no value in paying professional financial advisors to make decisions for me.

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    I realized the absurdity of such relationships when I crossed the last milestone that most brokerages use to pigeonhole investors into whether they get a robot advisor, a team, or a dedicated personal advisor.

    The question that I asked myself each time I crossed a major portfolio milestone was,

    "If I got this far (the same question Andy asked Red in "Shawshank" ) by myself (and the support of the AAII educational offering), why would I now pay anyone who sat on the sidelines (waiting for me to fail and come begging) while I journeyed alone and uncredentialled from a $10,000 initial investment 20 years ago to take over the helm, steering the portfolio I have built without their "advice" or "vote"?

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    Regards

    I am using this same logic with the BI offer.



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    BARRY JOHNSON
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