Technical Analysis

In Seven Keys to Successful Trading and Active Investing, Raymond A. Rondeau talks about the difference between knowing trading rules and executing them under pressure, as well as the importance of synergizing multiple approaches to improve signal reliability.

I'd love to hear your thoughts:

• When did you first realize that understanding trading principles wasn't the same as applying them in real time-and how did you overcome that gap?
• And as you've evolved, which mix of approaches (technical, fundamental, sentiment, macro, conviction-based indicators, etc.) has produced the most reliable signals for you?

If you haven't read the article yet, it's worth checking out before answering, lots of great insights to reflect on.

In Seven Keys to Successful Trading and Active Investing, Raymond A. Rondeau talks about the difference between knowing trading rules and executing them under pressure, as well as the importance of synergizing multiple approaches to improve signal reliability.

I'd love to hear your thoughts:

• When did you first realize that understanding trading principles wasn't the same as applying them in real time-and how did you overcome that gap?
• And as you've evolved, which mix of approaches (technical, fundamental, sentiment, macro, conviction-based indicators, etc.) has produced the most reliable signals for you?

If you haven't read the article yet, it's worth checking out before answering, lots of great insights to reflect on.

------------------------------
Jenna Brashear
AAII Community Manager
Chicago, IL
------------------------------

Jenna,

Hope your Thanksgiving was delicious and the fellowship restoring.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You asked

When did you first realize that understanding trading principles wasn't the same as applying them in real time-and how did you overcome that gap?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

For me it was when I discovered Charles Ellis' "Winning the Loser's Game" while I was reading Jeremy Seigel's "Stocks for the Long Run" (2015).

Ellis' main points are

#1 Markets have become dominated (about 80% of total volume) by large, "institutional" investors -- aka the "pros" or the "smart money"

#2 Fast access to enormous volumes of instantaneous information provides the ability of these behemoths to "beat the market" has DECREASED their ability to beat their market benchmarks.

Less than 15% "beat" their benchmarks and the few that do it year over year do not exist.

They are called "institutional investors." They include trillion dollar venture capital firms, hedge funds, private equity firms, and several hundred brokerage firms, each of which have a small army of affiliated Registered Independent Advisor firms ("RIAs") that manage billions of assets under management, have large staffs of Ivy League finance majors and the best and fastest computers and software programs.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you for once think you can beat this crowd, you are playing the Loser's Game.

You are going to assume you have skills you don't because you nurse your "ego."

You will try too hard. 

You will make a lot of unforced errors.

Remember you are an amateur and you are playing against pros – several million of them. And they are playing for "no do overs" and for "keepsies." They know they have large advantages they can exploit. .

They play the Winner's Game. They can afford to make a lot of mistakes because they know for certain they will beat you by playing the "long" game.

Here is a link to free copy of the 5th Ed

https://silo.pub/winning-the-losers-game-fifth-edition-timeless-strategies-for-successful-investing.html

The original article was The Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 31, No. 4, July/August 1975, 19-26. New York: Financial Analysts Federation

Regards,

------------------------------
BARRY JOHNSON

Original Message:
Sent: 11-25-2025 15:21
From: Jenna Brashear
Subject: Seven Keys to Successful Trading and Active Investing

In Seven Keys to Successful Trading and Active Investing, Raymond A. Rondeau talks about the difference between knowing trading rules and executing them under pressure, as well as the importance of synergizing multiple approaches to improve signal reliability.

I'd love to hear your thoughts:

• When did you first realize that understanding trading principles wasn't the same as applying them in real time-and how did you overcome that gap?
• And as you've evolved, which mix of approaches (technical, fundamental, sentiment, macro, conviction-based indicators, etc.) has produced the most reliable signals for you?

If you haven't read the article yet, it's worth checking out before answering, lots of great insights to reflect on.

------------------------------
Jenna Brashear
AAII Community Manager
Chicago, IL
------------------------------

There are thousands of guys in New York City who sit in front of banks of computer monitors and sift up-to-the-nanosecond data on stocks. Many have degrees from Ivy League schools, and they're generally a lot smarter than I am. I cannot hope to compete with them in their "active trading" methodologies. 

Thus, I take the tortoise approach to their hare. For the past 40+ years, I've been buying good equities with the intention of holding them until they become my children's inherited property. It doesn't always work out that way. I've bought quite a few losers, but I've managed to make a profit on most of my mistakes. All of the losses have been manageable---and useful for tax write-offs. The handful of stocks that I was right about and have held for many years have blown the roof off and more than made up for the losers. They've given me a comfortable retirement and provided my family with a lot to be thankful for last Thursday (and every day).

I read the forward to the book Barry discussed above. In it, Burton Malkiel states, "Actively buying and selling individual stocks in a futile attempt to beat the market is truly a loser's game." I think that's generally true for those with a short-term outlook. I think some methodologies, such as those touted by James O'Shaughnessy, can work for shorter-term trading, but I know that my method of buy-and-hold works.

The stock market is not a place for those who want to get rich quick.

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Original Message:
Sent: 11-28-2025 17:10
From: BARRY JOHNSON
Subject: Seven Keys to Successful Trading and Active Investing

Jenna,

Hope your Thanksgiving was delicious and the fellowship restoring.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You asked

When did you first realize that understanding trading principles wasn't the same as applying them in real time-and how did you overcome that gap?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

For me it was when I discovered Charles Ellis' "Winning the Loser's Game" while I was reading Jeremy Seigel's "Stocks for the Long Run" (2015).

Ellis' main points are

#1 Markets have become dominated (about 80% of total volume) by large, "institutional" investors -- aka the "pros" or the "smart money"

#2 Fast access to enormous volumes of instantaneous information provides the ability of these behemoths to "beat the market" has DECREASED their ability to beat their market benchmarks.

Less than 15% "beat" their benchmarks and the few that do it year over year do not exist.

They are called "institutional investors." They include trillion dollar venture capital firms, hedge funds, private equity firms, and several hundred brokerage firms, each of which have a small army of affiliated Registered Independent Advisor firms ("RIAs") that manage billions of assets under management, have large staffs of Ivy League finance majors and the best and fastest computers and software programs.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you for once think you can beat this crowd, you are playing the Loser's Game.

You are going to assume you have skills you don't because you nurse your "ego."

You will try too hard. 

You will make a lot of unforced errors.

Remember you are an amateur and you are playing against pros – several million of them. And they are playing for "no do overs" and for "keepsies." They know they have large advantages they can exploit. .

They play the Winner's Game. They can afford to make a lot of mistakes because they know for certain they will beat you by playing the "long" game.

Here is a link to free copy of the 5th Ed

https://silo.pub/winning-the-losers-game-fifth-edition-timeless-strategies-for-successful-investing.html

The original article was The Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 31, No. 4, July/August 1975, 19-26. New York: Financial Analysts Federation

Regards,

------------------------------
BARRY JOHNSON

Original Message:
Sent: 11-25-2025 15:21
From: Jenna Brashear
Subject: Seven Keys to Successful Trading and Active Investing

In Seven Keys to Successful Trading and Active Investing, Raymond A. Rondeau talks about the difference between knowing trading rules and executing them under pressure, as well as the importance of synergizing multiple approaches to improve signal reliability.

I'd love to hear your thoughts:

• When did you first realize that understanding trading principles wasn't the same as applying them in real time-and how did you overcome that gap?
• And as you've evolved, which mix of approaches (technical, fundamental, sentiment, macro, conviction-based indicators, etc.) has produced the most reliable signals for you?

If you haven't read the article yet, it's worth checking out before answering, lots of great insights to reflect on.

------------------------------
Jenna Brashear
AAII Community Manager
Chicago, IL
------------------------------

Dr Bob

From what I have read in your contributions, you are the AAII poster child for avoiding mistakes and unforced errors.

Anyone what to start a "Top 10 List" to share?

Mine include

Do what Bogle preached as Rule #1 - Pay yourself first, meaning, don't pay fees for advice/skills you can learn at AAII.

I favor very-low ER (under 0.09%) ETFs to reduce costs. 

Pay attention to minimizing tax liabilities ... like short-term versus long-term holding requirements (i.e., don't churn your portfolio holdings).

Regards

------------------------------
BARRY JOHNSON

Original Message:
Sent: 11-30-2025 21:15
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Seven Keys to Successful Trading and Active Investing

There are thousands of guys in New York City who sit in front of banks of computer monitors and sift up-to-the-nanosecond data on stocks. Many have degrees from Ivy League schools, and they're generally a lot smarter than I am. I cannot hope to compete with them in their "active trading" methodologies. 

Thus, I take the tortoise approach to their hare. For the past 40+ years, I've been buying good equities with the intention of holding them until they become my children's inherited property. It doesn't always work out that way. I've bought quite a few losers, but I've managed to make a profit on most of my mistakes. All of the losses have been manageable---and useful for tax write-offs. The handful of stocks that I was right about and have held for many years have blown the roof off and more than made up for the losers. They've given me a comfortable retirement and provided my family with a lot to be thankful for last Thursday (and every day).

I read the forward to the book Barry discussed above. In it, Burton Malkiel states, "Actively buying and selling individual stocks in a futile attempt to beat the market is truly a loser's game." I think that's generally true for those with a short-term outlook. I think some methodologies, such as those touted by James O'Shaughnessy, can work for shorter-term trading, but I know that my method of buy-and-hold works.

The stock market is not a place for those who want to get rich quick.

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Original Message:
Sent: 11-28-2025 17:10
From: BARRY JOHNSON
Subject: Seven Keys to Successful Trading and Active Investing

Jenna,

Hope your Thanksgiving was delicious and the fellowship restoring.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You asked

When did you first realize that understanding trading principles wasn't the same as applying them in real time-and how did you overcome that gap?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

For me it was when I discovered Charles Ellis' "Winning the Loser's Game" while I was reading Jeremy Seigel's "Stocks for the Long Run" (2015).

Ellis' main points are

#1 Markets have become dominated (about 80% of total volume) by large, "institutional" investors -- aka the "pros" or the "smart money"

#2 Fast access to enormous volumes of instantaneous information provides the ability of these behemoths to "beat the market" has DECREASED their ability to beat their market benchmarks.

Less than 15% "beat" their benchmarks and the few that do it year over year do not exist.

They are called "institutional investors." They include trillion dollar venture capital firms, hedge funds, private equity firms, and several hundred brokerage firms, each of which have a small army of affiliated Registered Independent Advisor firms ("RIAs") that manage billions of assets under management, have large staffs of Ivy League finance majors and the best and fastest computers and software programs.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you for once think you can beat this crowd, you are playing the Loser's Game.

You are going to assume you have skills you don't because you nurse your "ego."

You will try too hard. 

You will make a lot of unforced errors.

Remember you are an amateur and you are playing against pros – several million of them. And they are playing for "no do overs" and for "keepsies." They know they have large advantages they can exploit. .

They play the Winner's Game. They can afford to make a lot of mistakes because they know for certain they will beat you by playing the "long" game.

Here is a link to free copy of the 5th Ed

https://silo.pub/winning-the-losers-game-fifth-edition-timeless-strategies-for-successful-investing.html

The original article was The Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 31, No. 4, July/August 1975, 19-26. New York: Financial Analysts Federation

Regards,

------------------------------
BARRY JOHNSON

Original Message:
Sent: 11-25-2025 15:21
From: Jenna Brashear
Subject: Seven Keys to Successful Trading and Active Investing

In Seven Keys to Successful Trading and Active Investing, Raymond A. Rondeau talks about the difference between knowing trading rules and executing them under pressure, as well as the importance of synergizing multiple approaches to improve signal reliability.

I'd love to hear your thoughts:

• When did you first realize that understanding trading principles wasn't the same as applying them in real time-and how did you overcome that gap?
• And as you've evolved, which mix of approaches (technical, fundamental, sentiment, macro, conviction-based indicators, etc.) has produced the most reliable signals for you?

If you haven't read the article yet, it's worth checking out before answering, lots of great insights to reflect on.

------------------------------
Jenna Brashear
AAII Community Manager
Chicago, IL
------------------------------

Dr Bob

From what I have read in your contributions, you are the AAII poster child for avoiding mistakes and unforced errors.

Anyone what to start a "Top 10 List" to share?

Mine include

Do what Bogle preached as Rule #1 - Pay yourself first, meaning, don't pay fees for advice/skills you can learn at AAII.

I favor very-low ER (under 0.09%) ETFs to reduce costs. 

Pay attention to minimizing tax liabilities ... like short-term versus long-term holding requirements (i.e., don't churn your portfolio holdings).

Regards

------------------------------
BARRY JOHNSON

Original Message:
Sent: 11-30-2025 21:15
From: ROBERT ADAMS
Subject: Seven Keys to Successful Trading and Active Investing

There are thousands of guys in New York City who sit in front of banks of computer monitors and sift up-to-the-nanosecond data on stocks. Many have degrees from Ivy League schools, and they're generally a lot smarter than I am. I cannot hope to compete with them in their "active trading" methodologies. 

Thus, I take the tortoise approach to their hare. For the past 40+ years, I've been buying good equities with the intention of holding them until they become my children's inherited property. It doesn't always work out that way. I've bought quite a few losers, but I've managed to make a profit on most of my mistakes. All of the losses have been manageable---and useful for tax write-offs. The handful of stocks that I was right about and have held for many years have blown the roof off and more than made up for the losers. They've given me a comfortable retirement and provided my family with a lot to be thankful for last Thursday (and every day).

I read the forward to the book Barry discussed above. In it, Burton Malkiel states, "Actively buying and selling individual stocks in a futile attempt to beat the market is truly a loser's game." I think that's generally true for those with a short-term outlook. I think some methodologies, such as those touted by James O'Shaughnessy, can work for shorter-term trading, but I know that my method of buy-and-hold works.

The stock market is not a place for those who want to get rich quick.

------------------------------
Rob Adams

Original Message:
Sent: 11-28-2025 17:10
From: BARRY JOHNSON
Subject: Seven Keys to Successful Trading and Active Investing

Jenna,

Hope your Thanksgiving was delicious and the fellowship restoring.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You asked

When did you first realize that understanding trading principles wasn't the same as applying them in real time-and how did you overcome that gap?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

For me it was when I discovered Charles Ellis' "Winning the Loser's Game" while I was reading Jeremy Seigel's "Stocks for the Long Run" (2015).

Ellis' main points are

#1 Markets have become dominated (about 80% of total volume) by large, "institutional" investors -- aka the "pros" or the "smart money"

#2 Fast access to enormous volumes of instantaneous information provides the ability of these behemoths to "beat the market" has DECREASED their ability to beat their market benchmarks.

Less than 15% "beat" their benchmarks and the few that do it year over year do not exist.

They are called "institutional investors." They include trillion dollar venture capital firms, hedge funds, private equity firms, and several hundred brokerage firms, each of which have a small army of affiliated Registered Independent Advisor firms ("RIAs") that manage billions of assets under management, have large staffs of Ivy League finance majors and the best and fastest computers and software programs.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you for once think you can beat this crowd, you are playing the Loser's Game.

You are going to assume you have skills you don't because you nurse your "ego."

You will try too hard. 

You will make a lot of unforced errors.

Remember you are an amateur and you are playing against pros – several million of them. And they are playing for "no do overs" and for "keepsies." They know they have large advantages they can exploit. .

They play the Winner's Game. They can afford to make a lot of mistakes because they know for certain they will beat you by playing the "long" game.

Here is a link to free copy of the 5th Ed

https://silo.pub/winning-the-losers-game-fifth-edition-timeless-strategies-for-successful-investing.html

The original article was The Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 31, No. 4, July/August 1975, 19-26. New York: Financial Analysts Federation

Regards,

------------------------------
BARRY JOHNSON

Original Message:
Sent: 11-25-2025 15:21
From: Jenna Brashear
Subject: Seven Keys to Successful Trading and Active Investing

In Seven Keys to Successful Trading and Active Investing, Raymond A. Rondeau talks about the difference between knowing trading rules and executing them under pressure, as well as the importance of synergizing multiple approaches to improve signal reliability.

I'd love to hear your thoughts:

• When did you first realize that understanding trading principles wasn't the same as applying them in real time-and how did you overcome that gap?
• And as you've evolved, which mix of approaches (technical, fundamental, sentiment, macro, conviction-based indicators, etc.) has produced the most reliable signals for you?

If you haven't read the article yet, it's worth checking out before answering, lots of great insights to reflect on.

------------------------------
Jenna Brashear
AAII Community Manager
Chicago, IL
------------------------------

Robert, Sandy

Thanks for contributing to the list.

I did some research on Ellis' books and am thinking about importing some of his insights. 

In the meantime (I am distracted by Christmas), I want to add two insights:

#1 Elllis' books overlap a lot of the AAII investor educational offerings.

#2 June 18, 2021, Jason Zweig, the WSJ intelligentinvestor@wsj.com columnist and Graham/Buffett devotee/disciple, wrote an article entitled "You Can't Invest Without Trading. You Can Trade Without Investing" in 2021. In it he takes issue with the WSJ editorial staff using the name "investor" to describe ANY market participant.

Here is a gift link so you can enjoy it.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/you-cant-invest-without-trading-you-can-trade-without-investing-11623426213?st=aifjaU&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Now I can cross both of you off my Christmas list.

Merry. Merry. Happy Festivus.

Regards
------------------------------
BARRY JOHNSON
------------------------------