Technical Analysis

communities_1.jpg
 View Only
  • 1.  sovereign wealth fund

    Posted 02-12-2025 06:56
    Edited by Vinod Nair 02-12-2025 11:16

    What does the rational discerning members of this group think about the plan for setting up a sovereign wealth fund by US government. Please try to be apolitical (i know it is hard). unlike the oil rich middle eastern nations or counties like China which runs huge trade surplus, US does not have much wealth to manage. It does not seem to have any wealth but debt. In the US wealth creation happens at the private sector. How does it affect the economy in general and what is it's impact on our portfolios?  



    ------------------------------
    🙏
    Thanks
    And good luck with your investments
    InvestorNV | Boston | MA
    ------------------------------



  • 2.  RE: sovereign wealth fund

    Posted 02-12-2025 10:34

    This is a great question!   Where will the money come from ?  In my view, we have  massive debt that we should attend to and we don't have government owned resources that are printing money like oil.  What is the point?  



    ------------------------------
    Tom Goral
    Michigan Chapter President
    ------------------------------



  • 3.  RE: sovereign wealth fund

    Posted 02-12-2025 10:55

    Some people argue we are already treating the federal budget as if it were a sovereign wealth fund.

    The Constitution requires a Constitutional Amendment be ratified by 2/3rds of the states to authorize a source of the funds for such a change.

    Norway is good with its wealth. Saudi not so much. How many third-rate sport leagues and luxury hotels does the US need?

    This farcical suggestion presents so many opportunities to spoof our current situation.

    It was tough choice, but I pass. I get on the "do not publish that comment" list too frequently as it is.



    ------------------------------
    BARRY JOHNSON
    ------------------------------



  • 4.  RE: sovereign wealth fund

    Posted 02-12-2025 12:14

    It is coming Barry. It is not a suggestion or proposal but an executive order. Trump will not allow the market to go down. But in order to hold it up US will have to borrow more. Can it carry the weight and for how long?



    ------------------------------
    🙏
    Thanks
    And good luck with your investments
    InvestorNV | Boston | MA
    ------------------------------



  • 5.  RE: sovereign wealth fund

    Posted 02-12-2025 12:07

    The POINT is market manipulation. It can speculate on any asset including crypto. It can punish the companies which the administration do not like. It can favor the the firms presidents like. All of which can destroy value and wealth my opinion. If investors stop trusting the market, markets will stop functioning. I think the implications are huge.



    ------------------------------
    🙏
    Thanks
    And good luck with your investments
    InvestorNV | Boston | MA
    ------------------------------



  • 6.  RE: sovereign wealth fund

    Posted 02-12-2025 12:47

    Yes Vinod, I completely agree that it can turn into a cudgel that beats the market to its bidding.  That would be  even worse than insider trading  by government officials that happens today. 



    ------------------------------
    Tom Goral
    Michigan Chapter President
    ------------------------------



  • 7.  RE: sovereign wealth fund

    Posted 02-16-2025 10:48

    To have a Sovereign Wealth fund, you need to have some source for accumulating wealth.

    Right now, all the US has is a sovereign debt ... growing faster than the debt service ... and faster than the rate of inflation ... and unlike Norway and Saudi Arabia, we are not developing our energy resources at the same rates.

    The last thing the US needs right now is to have to have to cover investments we backed by cryptos and printing more USDs to cover a crypto crash we precipitated. 



    ------------------------------
    BARRY JOHNSON
    ------------------------------



  • 8.  RE: sovereign wealth fund

    Posted 02-16-2025 12:45

    Agree with you Barry.

    I will add this much.

    US has wealth, more than any other nation. it is all in the private sector. it has a beautiful wealth management system which attracts surplus from everywhere , promote innovation, reward innovators and makes investors wealthy. when the government gets involved the powerful gets wealthy and only the wealthy  get power, just like in the oil sheikhdoms. will it make everyone else poor like Bedouins of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. My fear is, it could.



    ------------------------------
    InvestorNV|MA
    ------------------------------



  • 9.  RE: sovereign wealth fund

    Posted 02-16-2025 14:29

    Vinod

    I share your enthusiasm for the awesomeness of American "exceptionalism."

    But, you also identify Problem #1 any US SWF has to overcome ... and "it's a big one, Elizabeth" as Fred Sanford (Redd Foxx) used to say. As you pointed out, most of US wealth is in PRIVATE hands -- stored as "un-potentiated" resources (undeveloped land, developed real estate, personal property, patents, intangible assets of assets like "goodwill" on and other assets carried on corporate balance sheets. 

    Private investors already own or have access to all these PRIVAELY OWNED investment vehicles that the US government cannot monetize without developing them into marketable assets.

    Problem #2 Any US SWF created by POTUS via an EO (or enacted as law by Congress) would, by definition, be PUBLICLLY owned.

    Large private and institutional investors (about 70% of all US market participants) already have more opportunities than they need ... 

    AND they are accustomed to being able to earn higher returns over 15% (just below venture capitalists @ 25%) than the 100 or so SWFs who currently create which are closer to historical public market averages 8% to 11%. By comparison, the US government sells its top-of-the line LT 30-year USTs yield 4.7% barely beating the "risk free rate" at 2.9%, which creates a very low "risk premium" of 1.8% which makes these offerings relatively unattractive. 

    Net: The US government is not a competitive lender. It does not offer investment opportunities that earn as much as ANYONE can earn in private markets. That's why Uncle Sam it is called "the lender of last resort." 

    Regards,



    ------------------------------
    BARRY JOHNSON
    ------------------------------