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"Sweet Spot" The intersection of the annual seasonal market pattern and the 4-Year Election Cycle

  • 1.  "Sweet Spot" The intersection of the annual seasonal market pattern and the 4-Year Election Cycle

    Posted 10-08-2022 11:09
    I am looking forward to this morning's presentation by Jeffrey Hirsch and digging into the historical relationship between the election cycle and seasonal investing strategies.     I am curious to find how which economic sectors performed best following the mid-term elections in which the congressional control switched political parties.


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    Jim Hoffmann, secretary@aaiisandiego.com
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  • 2.  RE: "Sweet Spot" The intersection of the annual seasonal market pattern and the 4-Year Election Cycle

    Posted 10-15-2022 00:42
    Jeffrey Hirsch gave a compelling talk about the historical relationship between the election cycle and seasonal investing strategies. But with all due respect, I think his claim that the Fed is almost finished in raising interest rates is incorrect. The inflation numbers that came out this week indicate to me that the Fed has a lot more work to do. In my opinion, there will be a long lag time before the Fed's medicine gets the job done. Quantitative easings took place several years ago and we are just this year seeing the effect on inflation. It may be a similar number of years before inflation tamps down. As long as interest rates set by the Fed are below the core rate of inflation, the real interest rates are negative. I think the Fed has to get real interest rates positive and then we have to wait a while for the medicine to work. Sorry for the bleak outlook.

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    STEPHEN RAWLINSON
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