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Mr. BARRY JOHNSON

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RE: The PRISM Wealth-Building Process: Putting It All Together

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 07-21-2026 14:24
Found In Egroup: PRISM: Prioritizing Your Goals \ view thread
My post to the article cited. Charles, a few observations. #1 Having a process is better than NOT having a process. #2 The process you chose must be systematic (repeatable), and results must be improvable (measurable) so you can learn and improve past results. #3 The AAII PRISM process meets ...

RE: Contrarian Indicator is back

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 06-10-2026 09:11
Found In Egroup: Growth Investing \ view thread
I love it when someone intentionally ignores the data and persists in presenting a strong opinion. The data and estimates MorningStar provides are ... The SpaceX project has a 4% (worst case), 50% (a Bernoulli flip), or 60% (best case) chance of success. That's the Bernoulli Saint Petersburg bet ...

RE: Navigating the Rise of Prediction Markets

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 06-08-2026 16:03
Found In Egroup: Technical Analysis \ view thread
Dr Bob Here I go again. It's the Morningstar fair value estimate for the SPCX IPO on Friday, June 12. I also posted this on the other thread. I wanted to make sure you saw this. I find your comments very informative. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

RE: Contrarian Indicator is back

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 06-08-2026 15:52
Found In Egroup: Growth Investing \ view thread
Morningstar has issued a research report that projects their estimated fair value for the SPCX IPO scheduled for Friday, June 12. Fair value is 1 of 5 measures they use to estimate stock valuation. I know the "shoot the moon" Roarin' Kitty crowd has an opinion on this. Their report provides a detailed, ...

RE: Contrarian Indicator is back

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 06-05-2026 09:50
Found In Egroup: Growth Investing \ view thread
Here is a link to a Morningstar research paper on AI stocks and IPOs that may help you evaluate AI opportunities. https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/blt9415ea4cc4157833/bltef88605200a90ed5/Opportunities-in-AI-US.pdf?utm_source=eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=res_na_usa_n_en_2606_bf_n ...

RE: Contrarian Indicator is back

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 06-05-2026 06:40
Found In Egroup: Growth Investing \ view thread
Thanks for the continuing stream of data points, Wu Zheng. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ My big concern is that this ominous portending "gold rush" to get rich on INFLATED IPOs might just take this roller coaster to the top and then .... woooooooooooooooosh!!!!!! ...

RE: Contrarian Indicator is back

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 06-04-2026 14:29
Found In Egroup: Growth Investing \ view thread
Thanks, Sandy A little data is a lot better than a lot of opinions. Regards

RE: Contrarian Indicator is back

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 06-03-2026 12:00
Found In Egroup: Growth Investing \ view thread
Dr Bob Me, too! When the noise volume grows this loud, it's time to tune out the message, sit on your pile. There are 3 to 5 AI companies launching HUGE IPOs. Several will go to market capitalizations over $1 trillion = 1 with 12 zeros = $1,000,000,000,000 -- in the first 5 days. The "market-makers" ...

RE: Contrarian Indicator is back

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 05-28-2026 10:52
Found In Egroup: Growth Investing \ view thread
Vinod First of all, there's a huge difference between being a "Contrarian Indicator" and being "contrary." ======================================================================= A "contrarian indicator" is a metric or data point that signals investors to do the opposite of the prevailing market ...

RE: Navigating the Rise of Prediction Markets

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 05-25-2026 12:10
Found In Egroup: Technical Analysis \ view thread
Dr Bob. Thanks for your insights and estimates. I agree. Even though there are numerous examples of populations and countries that have depleted the indigenous scarce resources that were capable of providing for future growth and prosperity [petroleum to provide energy and power, and rare earth minerals ...

RE: Navigating the Rise of Prediction Markets

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 05-24-2026 11:00
Found In Egroup: Technical Analysis \ view thread
My responses to the questions asked are: Q#1 Have you engaged in prediction markets? No. Q#2 If so, how do you apply prediction markets in practice to evaluate economic trends or hedge investment risks? I do not seek out prediction market data or statistics. However, I can see how these statistics ...

RE: Which 2025–2026 Tax Changes Matter Most to You and How Do You Stay Organized?

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 12-09-2025 14:15
Found In Egroup: Tax Strategies \ view thread
Robert, You are a good example on how to handle IRS inquiries - give lots of of data in a hurry. I actually had only one IRS audit over moving expenses in 1990 triggered by the fact that I had moving expenses in 1989 too. I did the same you did - flooded the zone with data an copies of receipts. ...

RE: Which 2025–2026 Tax Changes Matter Most to You and How Do You Stay Organized?

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 12-09-2025 10:50
Found In Egroup: Tax Strategies \ view thread
Jenna Regards for the Season. I pay Gene, my longtime CPA (a Sancho Panza type), to advise me on these decisions. So far, Gene is 100% for the last 30 or so years. The Lois Lerner case thought me that there are some IRS agents who have grudges to grind, and her example proves they can CHOOSE which ...

RE: Managing Portfolios During Periods of Fear

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 12-08-2025 16:00
Found In Egroup: Investor Sentiment \ view thread
S&P 500 index is UP over 18% YTD. Univ of MI consumer sentiment survey is DOWN over 18% YTD (from around 71% in Jan to 53% in Dec). People are looking for ways to reduce taxes. So much for consumer "confidence" as a predictor of market performance 6 months forward. ------------------------------ ...

RE: Need feedback on the growth ETFs selected

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 12-04-2025 15:47
Found In Egroup: Growth Investing \ view thread
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PS to Ananth Parimi Morningstar just posted a potentially very useful article that would be very useful on this thread's topic. "The Best Funds to Rebalance Your Portfolio for 2026" dated 12/4/25 ...

RE: Need feedback on the growth ETFs selected

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 12-04-2025 15:37
Found In Egroup: Growth Investing \ view thread
Dr Bob I admire and highly recommend your use of Occam's' Razor to cut to the main point. My sorry excuse for watching tracking error is evaluate how good the fund managers are at executing his/her strategies. I compare the TRs of comparable alternative ETF choices to see if I can find a better fund ...

RE: Need feedback on the growth ETFs selected

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 12-04-2025 11:06
Found In Egroup: Growth Investing \ view thread
Some specific feedback on our proposed portfolio Good choice on preferring passive index funds over actively managed funds. The ones you named would make up a diversified portfolio. US Total Stock Market VOO tracks an indexed BM of the SPX 500 stocks at a low 0.07 ER. Anchoring your PF on USA total ...

RE: Need feedback on the growth ETFs selected

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 12-04-2025 10:57
Found In Egroup: Growth Investing \ view thread
Duplicate deleted

RE: Need feedback on the growth ETFs selected

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 12-03-2025 10:28
Found In Egroup: Growth Investing \ view thread
Vanguard ETFs have VERY LOW tracking errors (i.e., they produce returns very close to the benchmark index they seek to track, i.e., they come very close to hitting their expected target returns -- i.e., the basic benefit they are selling and you are seeking) AND they provide VERY LOW ERs, many ...

RE: Seven Keys to Successful Trading and Active Investing

Posted By BARRY JOHNSON 12-02-2025 15:15
Found In Egroup: Technical Analysis \ view thread
Robert, Sandy Thanks for contributing to the list. I did some research on Ellis' books and am thinking about importing some of his insights. In the meantime (I am distracted by Christmas), I want to add two insights: #1 Elllis' books overlap a lot of the AAII investor educational offerings. ...